tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20242045302080399572024-02-08T06:45:36.273+08:00AEC BlogAEC Blog - Developments in the economic integration of Southeast AsiaEdmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comBlogger257125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-36175855335363388292020-04-12T23:08:00.004+08:002020-04-12T23:12:16.208+08:00ASEAN Further Enhances the EDSM<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Hi folks!</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I am back temporarily to let you know that my new article, "<span style="background-color: white;">ASEAN Further Enhances Its Dispute Settlement Mechanism" has just been published by the Indonesian Journal of International and Comparative Law. You can find it at </span><a data-attribute-index="0" href="https://www.ijil.org/" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border: 0px; box-sizing: inherit; font-weight: 600; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;">https://www.ijil.org/</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Here's the abstract for the article:</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #f3f6f8;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In 2019, ASEAN completed a further “enhancement” of the Enhance Dispute Settlement Mechanism (EDSM). On their face, the 2019 revisions do indeed “enhance” the EDSM by eliminating structural problems such as impractical timelines and by bolstering previously underdeveloped systems such as appellate procedures, creation of arbitration panels and rules of conduct for panelists. This will help give the revised EDSM more credibility. </span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f3f6f8;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Ultimately, however, whether the updated EDSM will be viewed as more credible, thereby strengthening the AEC, will depend on factors beyond its remit. Cultural and political factors in ASEAN will determine to what extent the updated EDSM is used by the ASEAN Member States. Moreover, the relative decline of alternative dispute forums, in particular the WTO, may make the updated EDSM more attractive to ASEAN Member States. Either way, the 2019 revisions in the EDSM are both welcome and timely reinforcements to the legal and policy foundations of the AEC.</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f3f6f8;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Please keep safe and healthy during this difficult time!</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f3f6f8;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Best Regards,</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: #f3f6f8;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Ed</span></span></div>
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Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-72149850297800852522019-09-02T04:58:00.000+08:002019-09-02T04:58:02.818+08:00Status of this Blog<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
For various professional and personal reasons, I have not been updating this blog. I am maintaining it to support academic research on ASEAN. If you wish to contact me about ASEAN issues, please email me at sim@appletonluff.com.<br />
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Wishing you all the best,<br />
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Ed </div>
Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-81286125190831255282017-11-19T21:48:00.001+08:002017-11-19T21:48:52.886+08:00Wrap-up of the 31st ASEAN Summit<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">In today’s
post, I provide a wrap-up on last week’s ASEAN Summit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Given the focus of this blog, I will not
analyze issues (such as the South China Sea) which have been well covered
elsewhere. Instead, I review some institutional developments:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">New ASEAN Secretary-General</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;"> – <a href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/seasia/2017/11/15/brunei-diplomat-named-as-new-asean-secretary-general.html">Lim
Jock Hoi of Brunei was named the next ASEAN Secretary-General</a>. Lim will
serve during the 2018-2022 term (this post is rotated among the ASEAN countries
based on alphabetical order, so the next Secretary General will be from
Cambodia).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a positive development for the AEC, as
Lim has deep experience in trade and investment issues, having served as Brunei’s
chief negotiator during the Trans Pacific Partnership talks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By my reckoning, Lim has the most experience in
regional economic integration of any Secretary General.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">ASEAN-Hong Kong FTA (AHKFTA)</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;"> – ASEAN and Hong Kong signed their
FTA.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With ratification not expected to
be an issue, the AHKFTA will take effect before the completion of the Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) talks (which have again missed a
self-imposed deadline for completion).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
real value-added for the AHKFTA is in investment and services, as virtually all
goods coming out of Hong Kong have China-origin and thus already qualify for the
ASEAN-China FTA.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rather, the AHKFTA will
give Hong Kong companies better access and protection for investments and
services, meaning that Chinese companies can use Hong Kong for their investment
vehicles rather than an ASEAN country or China itself.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This may mean some small market share loss in
investments for Singapore, particularly in the Philippines and perhaps northern
Vietnam (due to distance and stronger links) but overall both ASEAN and Hong
Kong will benefit from the FTA.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;">Timor-Leste</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial",sans-serif;"> – The Minister of Foreign Affairs and
Cooperation Aurelio Guterres was in Manila representing Timor-Leste instead of
the Timorese president.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, this
was not a downgrading by ASEAN but instead resulted from internal protocol
issues in Timor-Leste (and Guterres, whom I know from the Diplomatic Institute
and the National University of Timor-Leste, represented the country well). The
ASEAN Summit did not issue any finding on Timor-Leste’s application to join
ASEAN, referring the matter to the working group that meets on December 5 in
Bali. Hopefully the Bali meeting will be the end of the beginning for the Timorese
accession to ASEAN.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">I will update
this post as more documentation comes out.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
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Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-16793974918794186212017-08-08T00:00:00.000+08:002017-08-08T00:00:01.996+08:00Happy 50th ASEAN Day!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Today is ASEAN Day, the 50th </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">anniversary of the founding of ASEAN on August 8, 1967 with the signing of the Bangkok Declaration by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. These founding members were later joined by Brunei (1984), Vietnam (1995), Laos (1997), Myanmar (1997) and Cambodia (1999).</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">In celebration of ASEAN Day, today’s AEC Blog entry forgoes the usual commentary and instead provides the lyrics and tune of the ASEAN Anthem:</span></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><em>Raise our flag high, sky high </em><i><br /><em>Embrace the pride in our heart </em><br /><em>ASEAN we are bonded as one </em><br /><em>Look-in out to the world. </em><br /><em>For peace, our goal from the very start </em><br /><em>And prosperity to last. </em><br /><em>We dare to dream we care to share. </em><br /><em>Together for ASEAN </em><br /><em>we dare to dream, </em><br /><em>we care to share for it's the way of ASEAN.</em></i></span></div>
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Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-63472251141886876222017-05-16T21:20:00.000+08:002017-05-16T21:41:32.818+08:00Philippines Suggests that Turkey and Mongolia Can Join ASEAN<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">This week Philippine
President Rodrigo Duterte said that the <a href="http://www.rappler.com/nation/170013-duterte-turkey-mongolia-asean-member">leaders
of Turkey and Mongolia had approached him about joining ASEAN</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Duterte said that they made the request to him,
as the Philippines is currently ASEAN Chair, and that he was happy to “sponsor”
their membership applications.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">The difficulty with this
request is that neither country is part of Southeast Asia, which was noted by
Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>President
Duterte responded, <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial";">“</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">They are. I
would say that they are. Turkey, it seems to be ambivalent to whether to be a
bridge <span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">sa</span> (to) Europe and Asia
or being an Asian. <span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">Wala silang klaro
diyan</span> (There is nothing definite there.) There has always been an
ambivalent view. Sometimes they say that they are part of Asia, sometimes they
say that they are the bridge of Asia to Europe.” <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">However, a “definite”
concept of Southeast Asia underpins the membership criteria for ASEAN.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Article 6.2(a) of the ASEAN Charter states
that new members must have a “location in the recognised geographical region of
Southeast Asia.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Neither Turkey nor
Mongolia could objectively be considered part of Southeast Asia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Blurring the “recognised”
area of Southeast Asia, furthermore, would result in difficulties regarding
Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian province of Irian Jaya. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial";">By comparison, Timor-Leste is recognised as geographically part of Southeast Asia, meaning that it easily satisfies Article 6.2(a).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Thus, although the ASEAN
Charter can be amended by the ASEAN Summit (which was done, for example, by changing
the order of the ASEAN Chair terms), it is difficult to imagine ASEAN leaders
agreeing to Turkey and Mongolia joining the grouping.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">This is not the first time
countries far removed from Southeast Asia have been suggested for membership in
ASEAN.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sri Lanka (at the beginning of
ASEAN), Fiji, and most recently Australia have been mooted as potential members.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, these proposals did not go very far.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The prospects for Turkey and Mongolia
look similarly dim, meaning similar outcomes of either politely ignoring the
proposal, or clarifying (diverting) them into the ASEAN Regional Forum or free
trade agreement talks with ASEAN.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">The episode demonstrates,
once again, why ASEAN needs the rules and rules-based order established by
the ASEAN Charter.</span><span style="font-family: "arial";"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial";">Without the Charter,
this discussion of membership would be governed by the politics and diplomacy of
the moment, rather than legal and institutional foundations.</span></div>
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Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-44369827845738003772017-05-10T03:11:00.002+08:002017-05-10T11:30:43.353+08:00ASEAN-X Risks Diluting RCEP<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">This week <a href="http://www.businessmirror.com.ph/asean-minus-x-formula-to-fast-track-rcep-phl/">the
Philippines proposed an alteration to the negotiating paradigm of the Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP</a>), in an effort to relieve the
logjam currently affecting the RCEP free trade agreement (FTA) talks involving
16 countries, ASEAN plus India, China, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The difficulty is that the Philippine
proposal may add more complications to what is already a complex set of trade
talks and increases the likelihood that those talks will result in a weaker
FTA.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">The Philippine proposal
basically calls for the RCEP parties to apply “variable geometry” to the RCEP commitments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Variable geometry, in FTA terms, allows
parties to apply trade liberalization commitments on an asymetrical basis,
e.g., not all FTA parties implementing their commitments at the same time or to
the same extent. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">In ASEAN, this is known as “<a href="http://aseanec.blogspot.com/2011/10/putting-asean-x-to-work-for-aec.html">ASEAN-X,”</a>
provided in Article 21.2 of the ASEAN Charter. A subset of ASEAN members can
proceed with faster economic integration, with the understanding that other
ASEAN members can later join the subset when they are ready. In this way, the
integration process can continue and achieve the same end result, albeit at
varying speeds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Thus, ASEAN-X is a useful
tool to promote economic integration. The problem comes when not all parties
share the understanding that the non-participating ASEAN members will
eventually join the subset. As I explained in previously, this can happen when there
are multiple subsets of ASEAN countries, or subsets which result from
fundamentally incompatible policies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">This is difficult enough in
the ASEAN context, where at least there are regional institutions and processes
in ASEAN to move the process along, however slowly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Application of the ASEAN-X formula to the
RCEP process could be even more problematic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The RCEP talks have stalled because China, Japan, India, and Korea have
no FTAs among them, whereas ASEAN has FTAs with those countries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As a result, the RCEP talks have had
difficulties “squaring the circle,” both among the three northeast Asian
countries and, for all countries involved, in negotiating with India.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Application of the ASEAN-X formula could thus
result in multiple subsets of RCEP being created for these countries.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">That of course, undermines
one of the fundamental objectives of the RCEP, which was to streamline the
trading and investment relationships among the RCEP partners.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Furthermore, if the variable geometries are
baked into the RCEP agreement, it will be more difficult for the RCEP parties,
operating without established institutions and processes, to move the outliers
into the main body of the RCEP commitments.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: arial;">If applied to the RCEP
talks, therefore, ASEAN-X and variable geometry could end the negotiating
impasse.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">But doing so carries the risk
of diluting what already promises to be a relatively weak product from the RCEP
talks.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></div>
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Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-56155176320461799422017-04-23T05:39:00.000+08:002017-04-23T05:39:34.660+08:00VP Mike Pence Reaffirms U.S.-ASEAN Ties <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">This week U.S. Vice
President Mike Pence visited the ASEAN Secretariat, becoming the
highest-ranking U.S. official to have visited ASEAN headquarters.</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial;">Pictured below is Vice President Pence meeting
with ASEAN Secretary-General Le Luong Minh.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-NNb39RJuZUDcZZUQENdzwmgQXi-0U4Ae5P7QAxO11Gshje4chZi4gHuhh52anwntD_d70HILSkAEktLxjF7K-qf1hUz4-fejVOSChA47pv-mjfMem8ZwDGz375NVAAf1JQqzs39vaNpT/s1600/Pence.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-NNb39RJuZUDcZZUQENdzwmgQXi-0U4Ae5P7QAxO11Gshje4chZi4gHuhh52anwntD_d70HILSkAEktLxjF7K-qf1hUz4-fejVOSChA47pv-mjfMem8ZwDGz375NVAAf1JQqzs39vaNpT/s320/Pence.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">Vice President Pence also
met with the permanent representatives of the ASEAN member states and members
of the Young Southeast Asia Leaders Initiative, a U.S.-sponsored people-to-people
initiative.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">The Pence visit should be viewed
as a positive diplomatic development.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">First, the Trump
administration’s gesture of engaging with ASEAN as an institution should be
much appreciated by ASEAN. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>President
Obama visited Indonesia twice but never made an appearance at the ASEAN
Secretariat.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">Second, Vice President Pence
announced that in November President Trump would attend both the APEC Summit in
Vietnam and the East Asia Summit (EAS) in Manila.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>President Trump’s participation in both
meetings was not a given; President Obama missed 2 APEC summits and 3 EAS meetings
during his presidency.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">Third, when combined with
the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ meeting scheduled for May 4 with U.S. Secretary of
State Rex Tillerson, these moves signal renewed attention to Southeast Asia as
a region.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">For the United States, a
little goes a long way in ASEAN.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Moves
such as the Pence visit matter in the region’s diplomatic circles; previous U.S.
absences from Asian regional meetings such as APEC and EAS were frequently
criticized.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Moreover, U.S. support of
ASEAN economic integration initiatives such as the ASEAN Single Window promises
a big return for a small investment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
fully functioning ASEAN Economic Community – one that operates both as a single
market and a single production base – represents a great opportunity for
American business.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">Thus, the Pence visit and
its accompanying initiatives are a welcome signal that America’s relationship
with ASEAN remains a vital part of U.S. foreign policy.</span></div>
</div>
Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-77613996107591846192017-02-11T11:02:00.002+08:002017-02-11T11:03:08.493+08:00AEC 2025 Consolidated Strategic Action Plan<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This week ASEAN published the <a href="http://asean.org/aec-2025-consolidated-strategic-action-plan/">“AEC 2025
Consolidated Strategic Action Plan (CSAP).”</a> The plan lays out both the
specific steps associated with implementing the Asean Economic Community (AEC)
2025 Blueprint, along with the anticipated timeframe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">ASEAN stated that the CSAP “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">allows for more structured tracking and reporting of the
implementation progress of the AEC Blueprint 2025. The AEC 2025 CSAP also
facilitates stakeholder feedback to ASEAN economic integration priorities in
the succeeding years, as it will be reviewed and updated periodically over the
10-year period.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The CSAP is indeed a positive step forward, as the AEC
Blueprint 2025 was necessarily aspirational in nature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The CSAP is more practical and has more
specified tasks, although much of the CSAP is aspirational as well.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Yet the CSAP does not indicate how the “tracking and
reporting of the implementation progress” will be done.</span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">ASEAN has only done two AEC Scorecards, and
the most recent scoring, which was not in the form of a scorecard, was limited
only to a review of “key deliverables” for 2015.</span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Since that time, there has been no detailed
reporting, on a country-specific and program-specific basis, provided by ASEAN.
Hopefully the CSAP will allow for this in the future, </span><a href="http://aseanec.blogspot.com/2012/05/grading-asean-economic-community.html" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">as
the lack of monitoring and compliance mechanisms is a deficiency in ASEAN’s institutional structure</a><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-72338520719700096992017-02-05T23:50:00.002+08:002017-02-06T12:56:40.076+08:00How Does Trump's America View ASEAN?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">How does America view ASEAN in the new Trump
era?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After two weeks, there is one big news
item and some smaller ones.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">First, the big talking point is the South China
Sea/West Philippine Sea dispute.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Comments by Trump administration figures regarding the maritime dispute
have been much discussed in the media, particularly in the U.S.-China
context.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet the comments go beyond
that. They remind all players in the region that the dispute is an
international dispute with multiple parties involved, which cannot be resolved
on a bilateral basis only between China and the Philippines, for example.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the new U.S. administration can maintain
the narrative on this basis, and avoid the on-the-ground escalations with China
which have plagued previous new U.S. administrations in their early days (e.g.,
Taiwan in the Clinton administration or the Hainan island incident in the Bush
43 administration), so much the better for a peaceful management of the
situation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Second, less publicized was last week’s <a href="https://www.usasean.org/press-release/2017/01/27/us-asean-business-council-applauds-new-asean-congressional-caucus">formation
of a bipartisan ASEAN caucus in the U.S. Congress</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This comes after more than two years of
effort in Washington, and is a positive development. As I discussed in a
previous <a href="http://aseanec.blogspot.com/2014/06/us-asean-congressional-caucus-proposed.html">post</a>,
perhaps the biggest gain is the creation of another link with ASEAN countries
for whom bilateral relations are strained at the moment, such as the
Philippines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Third, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/02/03/upshot/which-country-do-americans-like-most-for-republicans-its-australia.html">a
recent poll by YouGov published in the New York Times illustrates that
country’s fall in reputation in the U.S. since 2014</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Polls taken in 2014 and 2017 surveyed
Americans’ perceptions of other countries as allies or enemies of the United
States, further breaking down perceptions based on party preferences; I post
some selected data here (green shading means positive, red shading means
negative):</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCP7xZMKmoLm6ZAGqWbaXuXT7fcdb_AW9IpyyD8cOMuM7rg0_gdJ_M4RSr3k4H2HLdNcrw72I0IO0d7GfqQyLGsAF30hNF0HZlLz3xblNipMas69q1fwRpaIwvaYen6DTmSZctEkatjhBm/s1600/Survey.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCP7xZMKmoLm6ZAGqWbaXuXT7fcdb_AW9IpyyD8cOMuM7rg0_gdJ_M4RSr3k4H2HLdNcrw72I0IO0d7GfqQyLGsAF30hNF0HZlLz3xblNipMas69q1fwRpaIwvaYen6DTmSZctEkatjhBm/s320/Survey.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: "arial";">This poll should be viewed as an indication of
both familiarity and popularity.</span><span style="font-family: "arial";"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial";">The
former explains why European countries are the highest ranked, given that most
Americans originated in Europe, and Europe is closer geographically.</span><span style="font-family: "arial";"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial";">The latter is affected by historical memory;
Afghanistan, Iraq, Russia and Pakistan fall near the bottom of the rankings,
and North Korea is consistently ranked as the worst enemy.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">For ASEAN countries, the poll shows mixed
results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Philippines went from being
the highest ranked Asian country in 2014 (9<sup>th</sup>) to falling to 41<sup>st</sup>
place in 2017.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This reflects the
constant negative media coverage of the Duterte administration since it came to
power.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the other hand, this ranking
is consistent with rankings for the other ASEAN countries and is still higher
than the other seven ranked members (the poll itself is distorted by not
including Brunei and Singapore, although it did include sparsely-populated
<b>Greenland, which was ranked 10th in 2014 and 23<sup>rd </sup></b></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>in 2017!</b></span><span style="font-family: "arial";">).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">For the other ASEAN countries, the polls show
their relative lack of impression on the American public. The rankings show relatively little movement from 2014 to 2017, which was the case for most Asian
countries (the above chart shows Japan, South Korea, China and North Korea for
reference).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Furthermore, it is hard to
discern the links between favorability and recent developments in the region.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, Myanmar went through a
transition to a democratic government led by the popular Aung San Suu Kyi, yet
the poll says that it fell in rankings from 102<sup>nd</sup> in 2014 to 117<sup>th</sup>
in 2017, and ranked lower than Cambodia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Vietnam, which has a large
diaspora in the U.S., ranked lower than Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia,
which do not, probably because of lingering sentiments from the Vietnam War
(which ended more than 40 years ago). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">The foregoing indicates that ASEAN members will
need to be resourceful in the coming years, given their diplomatic and
political situations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The ASEAN
congressional caucus is a useful forum for ASEAN members, but other tools and
means should be pursued.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ASEAN members need
to expand American perceptions of ASEAN beyond the South China Sea and media
reports, and increase economic and cultural ties. For example, the Trump
administration has signaled that <a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Trump-trade-adviser-sees-bilateral-deals-replacing-TPP">it
may pursue bilateral free trade agreements with Malaysia and Thailand.</a> This
opportunity comes because of the demise of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP),
and should be pursued by all sides. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">In other words, ASEAN faces a significantly
different relationship with the United States. Rather than simply throwing up
their collective hands in frustration (or worse) its members need to engage and
work with the United States to build upon that relationship.</span></div>
</div>
Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-50224292252438378572016-10-06T22:50:00.000+08:002016-10-06T22:50:08.920+08:00CLMV ASEAN Accession Lessons<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This week the Institute of
Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) published <a href="https://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/pdf/TRS14_16.pdf">a study on the
experience of diplomats from Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV) within
ASEAN</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The study looks at how these countries
integrated (or re-integrated) with the world after trauma and isolation,
through the process of joining ASEAN, as well as their interactions with and
within the ASEAN institutions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
posits that, by using the smaller forum of ASEAN, the CLMV countries learned or
re-learned how to operate in the world system.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I would agree with this
proposition, as one of ASEAN’s major successes has been to bring the heretofore
isolated CLMV countries into the world system, even if that process has
required more time and resources in some countries rather than others.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, the study focused
on the experience of the CLMV countries in ASEAN, but not on the converse,
e.g., how did the incumbent ASEAN+6 countries view this process?</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Not all of the ASEAN+6 countries took a
positive view of the CLMV countries’ accession process, as some countries (e.g.
Singapore) have cited human resources and capacity concerns as obstacles to
ASEAN’s taking on new members (e.g., Timor-Leste), clearly reflecting the
lingering effects of the CLMV experience.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To this, I would say that
the CLMV experience is illustrative but not indicative of what will happen when
Timor-Leste joins ASEAN.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Unlike the CLMV countries,
Timor-Leste has existed as an independent country for a far shorter period of
time.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That means many institutions had
to be created from scratch, relying on the leadership and experience of the
Timorese resistance movement and diaspora.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The English language issues cited in the ISEAS study as affecting the
CLMV countries do apply to Timor-Leste, which uses Portuguese and Tetum as
official languages.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On the other hand, that same
Timorese resistance movement developed strong capabilities from dealing with
the international community during the years of resistance. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Unlike the CLMV countries at the time of
their accession, Timor-Leste has had more experience in dealing with larger
international forums, like the g7+ and CPLP (the Portuguese language community
of countries). This capacity was most recently demonstrated by Dili’s hosting
of the ASEAN People’s Forum.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The younger generation of
Timorese leaders has also made great strides in English language capability as
well as substantive aspects of policy and international relations.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I can attest to this from personal
experience:</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK5SS2vmZYBM2GlvNH6pTsz-LE3P3ztdiKCx0fVXmr8HcWIw2bnB3QlnRxAY7Hbu5nXQwLlpPCloBtBMY5B60RS0j8PQfcebloYXK3IHjwdrv3grQ54KkZcXgdID3-6hlqsaLp3szru0-j/s1600/IMG_0319.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiK5SS2vmZYBM2GlvNH6pTsz-LE3P3ztdiKCx0fVXmr8HcWIw2bnB3QlnRxAY7Hbu5nXQwLlpPCloBtBMY5B60RS0j8PQfcebloYXK3IHjwdrv3grQ54KkZcXgdID3-6hlqsaLp3szru0-j/s320/IMG_0319.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">the 30+ students in my August
2016 “Introduction to ASEAN” class at the Diplomatic Training Institute of
Timor-Leste were articulate (in English), knowledgeable and energetic, far
exceeding the capabilities of the Timorese officials I interacted with in the
early days of independence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This impression
comes both from the classroom experience and their examination papers. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Timor-Leste will present the
ASEAN institutions with integration issues, like any new member.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, in many ways Timorese officials will
be better equipped to deal with these issues.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Either way, Timor-Leste is ready to begin the ASEAN accession process.</span></div>
</div>
Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-5888948181077431492016-09-08T09:25:00.000+08:002016-09-08T09:30:05.565+08:00Japan Supports TPP Membership for ASEAN Members<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">During this week’s meetings
in Laos, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe offered to support any ASEAN
country that wishes to join the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), according to <a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/09/07/business/abe-vows-back-expanding-tpp-participation-asean-members/#.V9C4bI5aekk">the
Japan Times</a>:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial";">“The TPP will not divide ASEAN,” Abe said. The
importance placed on the TPP by Japan and the U.S. has been interpreted as an
effort to counter the regional influence of China, which is not party to the
pact. “The TPP was agreed after clearing political hurdles,” Abe said. “Japan
will support ASEAN countries wishing to participate in the TPP so that they can
bring their plans to fruition.”</span></i><span style="font-family: "arial";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">This is important for
Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar because ASEAN members do not automatically qualify
to accede to the TPP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to
Article 30.4.1: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial";">"1. This Agreement is open to accession by:<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></i>
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">(a) any State or separate
customs territory that is a member of APEC; and</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial";"><o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /></span></i>
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial";">(b) any other State or separate customs territory as
the Parties may agree,<o:p></o:p></span></i><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial";">that is prepared to comply with the obligations in
this Agreement, subject to such terms and conditions as may be agreed between
the State or separate customs territory and the Parties, and following approval
in accordance with the applicable legal procedures of each Party and acceding
State or separate customs territory (accession candidate)."<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar
are not members of APEC, whereas Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand are
APEC members and satisfy these criteria.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Thus, Mr. Abe’s proposal will need to be supported by the other TPP
members to qualify Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar for the TPP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Given their less developed economies, these
countries would probably be in a potential third group of TPP candidates, after
countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and South Korea who are
currently considering joining in the next wave. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">In any event, the TPP needs
ratification by its existing parties, particularly the U.S.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Without U.S. ratification, the TPP will not
come into force, and that will largely depend on domestic political conditions
in America.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-18220580966059149582016-09-07T11:30:00.000+08:002016-09-10T21:25:09.056+08:00Wrap-up of the 2016 ASEAN Summit(s)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">This week Laos hosted the
2016 ASEAN Summits in Vientiane.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
media will largely focus on the communiqué’s language on the South China
Sea/West Philippine Sea.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, as a
result of efforts to downplay the dispute, including those of the new
Philippine government, the document was not likely to adopt a more active
stance on the issue. This, coupled with the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">bete
noire</i> with the United States over Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte’s
choice of words, will cause some observers to view the Vientiane summits as a
relative disappointment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That would
overlook some of the achievements announced in Laos in <a href="http://asean.org/storage/2016/09/Chairmans-Statement-of-the-28th-and-29th-ASEAN-Summits_FINAL.pdf">the
Chair’s statement</a>:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<li><span style="font-family: "symbol"; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><u><span style="font-family: "arial";">ASEAN Summit</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "arial"; text-indent: -0.25in;"> -- The timing of the summits themselves reflects the inherent
flexibility of ASEAN. Laos felt that it
did not have the infrastructure to hold two major summits in 2016, as is
required by the ASEAN Charter. Hence Laos
was permitted to conduct both summits this week, but with the same
participants. This complied with the
letter of the law, but it also meant that ASEAN decisions were delayed several
months until the Vientiane meetings (with an excellent explanation of why this is the case <a href="http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/09/09/going-back-to-the-spirit-of-asean-charter-while-the-groupings-internal-summits-are-meant-to-be-busin/">here</a>). On
the other hand, reducing the administrative burden of hosting the ASEAN Summit
will help when smaller countries (e.g., Timor-Leste) serve as Chair, assuming
that the 2016 Laos precedent is not followed too often.</span></li>
<li><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><u><span style="font-family: "arial";">Timor-Leste</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "arial"; text-indent: -0.25in;"> – The Summit announced that all 3 feasibility studies on the accession
have been completed, and that the application is now with the ASEAN
Coordinating Council Working Group (ACCWG). That means that the ACCWG is the
last formal hurdle before the start of the official accession process. The Summit also announced that Timor-Leste
would participate in more ASEAN meetings for capacity building purposes. Last year Timor-Leste attended its first
ASEAN meeting (on connectivity) but since then has not attended any other
meetings (although it was invited to, but did not participate in, the ASEAN Law
Ministers meeting last year).</span></li>
<li><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><u><span style="font-family: "arial";">Development</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "arial"; text-indent: -0.25in;"> – The third work plan for the Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI
III) was announced. The IAI serves as
ASEAN’s wish list for projects in the less developed parts of the region, with
funding to come from donor countries.
The real question will be how the new Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank will interact with existing donor countries and entities in implementing
the IAI as well as the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity, which covers the
entire region.</span></li>
<li><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><u><span style="font-family: "arial";">Institutions</span></u></b><span style="font-family: "arial"; text-indent: -0.25in;"> – The communiqué states that ASEAN has addressed the recommendations of
the High Level Task Force on Strengthening the ASEAN Secretariat and Reviewing
the ASEAN Organs, noting that most of them are “perpetual” in nature and will
require continuing implementation. </span></li>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Now the Chair passes to the
Philippines, a founding member of ASEAN.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In addition to the usual responsibilities of the Chair, the Philippines
also will supervise the celebrations of the 50<sup>th</sup> anniversary of
ASEAN as well as the selection of the next ASEAN Secretary General (who will
come from Brunei as per the national rotation).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-42743173999131359842016-09-01T23:36:00.000+08:002016-09-02T20:00:09.421+08:00Whither Australia in ASEAN?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">This week former
Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating repeated his proposal that Australia join
ASEAN.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to the <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/world/paul-keating-pushes-for-australia-to-join-asean-20160830-gr4zzj">Australian
Financial Review</a>, “<span style="color: #535353;">Australia ‘should become a
member of ASEAN’, a membership that would ‘help Australia and help ASEAN’.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mr. Keating raised this idea previously in
2012</span></span><span style="color: #535353; font-family: "arial";">.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #535353; font-family: "arial";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="color: #535353; font-family: "arial";">The
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) provides thorough analysis of why
Australia would never formally request ASEAN membership, <a href="http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/canberra-questions-why-australia-should-join-asean/">here</a>
and <a href="http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australia-into-asean-the-asean-no/">here</a>.
It also discusses the reasons in favor of Australian membership <a href="http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/why-australia-should-join-asean/">here</a>
and <a href="http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australia-into-asean-the-asean-yes/">here</a>.</span><span style="font-family: "arial";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">I’ll stick to a more
legalistic analysis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Article 6 of the
ASEAN Charter sets forth the criteria for membership as follows:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><br /></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">“(a) location in the
recognized geographical region of Southeast Asia; <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="Default">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">(b) recognition by all
ASEAN Member States; <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">(c) agreement to be
bound and to abide by the Charter; and <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">(d) ability and willingness to carry out the
obligations of Membership.”<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">The second criterion is not
at issue, but the others are.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">First, Australia is not part
of the “recognized geographical region of Southeast Asia.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Australia is considered to be its own
continent, or a part of Oceania.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One of
the ASPI articles cited above brushes this aside as Australia is a neighbor of
ASEAN, like Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste, other potential ASEAN members.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, Timor-Leste is a recognized part of
Southeast Asia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Papua New Guinea is not,
due to colonial history and issues related to Irian Jaya. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Second, would Australia
agree “to be bound and to abide by the Charter”?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Article 7.2 of Charter states that “The ASEAN
Summit shall be the supreme policy-making body of ASEAN.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ASEAN membership would necessarily mean that
Australia would be subject to decisions made by the leaders of ASEAN, who
reflect a variety of systems including varying forms of democracy, Communists, a military junta and a monarch.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Would Australians accept
this?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Third, would Australia have
the “ability and willingness to carry out the obligations of Membership”? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At first glance, this should not be an issue
for a developed country such as Australia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, agreeing to submit to arbitration (including investor-state
dispute settlement (ISDS) under the ASEAN Comprehensive Investment Agreement)
is part of the obligations of ASEAN membership. With Australia having a more
skeptical view of ISDS, would the country really want to join a regional economic
bloc where ISDS is part of the operating system?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Mr. Keating’s remarks seem
to be intended to provoke discussion and promote greater Australian interest in
ASEAN.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s a good thing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, these things take on a life of their
own, meaning that they should be scrutinized on their substantive merits in
addition to their intellectual points. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The ASPI articles and my own analysis
indicate that this proposal will not get past the university seminar room.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "arial";">Apologies for not posting recently.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I have been very busy advising Timor-Leste on
its ASEAN accession and on a feasibility study on the Trans-Pacific Partnership
for the Thai Ministry of Commerce. Also, frankly, there have not been very many
AEC developments to discuss recently. Hopefully this will change soon.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-79693719979914964242016-08-08T00:00:00.000+08:002016-08-08T00:00:09.969+08:00Happy 49th ASEAN Day!<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Today is ASEAN Day, the 49th </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">anniversary of the founding of ASEAN on August 8, 1967 with the signing of the Bangkok Declaration by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. These founding members were later joined by Brunei (1984), Vietnam (1995), Laos (1997), Myanmar (1997) and Cambodia (1999).</span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">In celebration of ASEAN Day, today’s AEC Blog entry forgoes the usual commentary and instead provides the lyrics and tune of the ASEAN Anthem:</span></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><em>Raise our flag high, sky high </em><i><br /><em>Embrace the pride in our heart </em><br /><em>ASEAN we are bonded as one </em><br /><em>Look-in out to the world. </em><br /><em>For peace, our goal from the very start </em><br /><em>And prosperity to last. </em><br /><em>We dare to dream we care to share. </em><br /><em>Together for ASEAN </em><br /><em>we dare to dream, </em><br /><em>we care to share for it's the way of ASEAN.</em></i></span></div>
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Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-1610558729383904832016-06-24T20:06:00.002+08:002016-06-24T20:33:56.800+08:00Brexit's Effects on ASEAN<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Yesterday the British people voted to leave in the EU, e.g., "Brexit". UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage called this the "Independence Day" for the UK from the EU. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">By happenstance, today is also the premiere of "I<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_Day:_Resurgence">ndependence Day: Resurgence</a>," the sequel to the disaster movie "Independence Day." In the sequel, the aliens destroy London and Singapore with a megaweapon. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The Brexit referendum is the legal equivalent of that megaweapon. <a href="http://aseanec.blogspot.com/2016/03/bretts-direct-and-indirect-impacts-on.html">Read more at my earlier post. </a></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">We are now in for 2+ years of negotiations on separation treaties and free trade agreements for the UK, EU and their trading partners. More work for lawyers and consultants, but bad news overall.</span></div>
Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-731968869123227092016-06-03T23:52:00.000+08:002016-06-04T21:58:56.787+08:00ASEAN Minimum Wage May Raise Compensation and Institutional Issues<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">This
week Indonesian Vice President Jusuf Kalla proposed an ASEAN minimum wage for
workers. According to the Jakarta Post, <a href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/06/03/indonesia-to-propose-minimum-wage-for-asean-workers.html">Kalla
made the proposal during a World Economic Forum meeting on ASEAN in KL</a>:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<i><span style="font-family: "arial";">Vice President Jusuf Kalla introduced
the idea amid concerns over a lack of protection for nationals of ASEAN member
states. "Vietnam very much supports what I have said about the need
for ASEAN countries to protect their citizens from exploitation," Kalla
said on Thursday as quoted by Antara news agency.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<i><span style="font-family: "arial";">He said other ASEAN member countries
had expressed interest in pushing for a minimum wage for workers in the region.
Kalla said manpower ministers from ASEAN member countries would meet shortly to
discuss the issue. "We are in agreement. Cambodia has also agreed,"
he asserted. <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<i><span style="font-family: "arial";">Kalla added that the government did not
want large multinational companies in ASEAN countries to compete for the lowest
wages. "Competition is good, and so far we have not lost out due to low
wages because the raw material is the same, the factories too," Kalla
said. <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">I
am not going to debate here whether government-mandated minimum wages are
economically beneficial to workers, consumers or employers. However, the Indonesian proposal does raise
some ASEAN-specific issues which I’d like to discuss.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">First,
would we have an ASEAN region-wide minimum wage, or would there be allowances
for the less-developed countries of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam
(CLMV)? Kalla’s comments indicate
support from Cambodia and Vietnam, who presumably would want such allowances.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">Second,
would the scope of the minimum wage only cover wages, or would benefits such as
retirement, severance, medical, leave, etc., also be covered? In other words, is the term “minimum wage” to
be taken literally or will it cover all aspects of worker compensation? Will there be different wage scales for
different sectors? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">Third,
who would be covered? All workers in an
ASEAN country, including guest workers?
Or only ASEAN nationals? What
about ASEAN nationals who are in another ASEAN country but on an undocumented
basis? Or who are working in a special
economic zone?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">Fourth,
how the workers ensure that their rights to a minimum wage are protected? Would they go to an ASEAN institution (not
likely) or an ASEAN member state’s government (much more likely)? Could they go
to dispute resolution or to administrative means? Who
would investigate? What sanctions would be
imposed on the employer? Would the workers be entitled to receive back
wages? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">Fifth,
even if the enforcement process will be necessarily nation-based instead of
region-based, how will the ASEAN national agencies or courts interpret and
apply the ASEAN minimum wage documentation? Will they look at the negotiating
history, statements by government officials and the like? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">All
of this leads to my final question, what legal form will the ASEAN minimum wage
take? Will it be the usual ASEAN
declaration of an aspirational nature, which might mean that the minimum wage
would be fully or partially unenforceable?
Or will it have more legal weight, which would make it more effective
but will require more legal and institutional infrastructure?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">In
previous posts, <a href="http://aseanec.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-third-rail-of-asean-internal.html">I
have called labor mobility the “third rail of ASEAN” which politicians will
touch only at their peril.</a> The ASEAN minimum wage proposal does not touch
this third rail, but it raises similar issues with similar potential controversies:
it’s not touching the third rail, but it is close enough to hear the
electricity humming down the line. </span><span style="font-family: "arial";"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial";"> </span></div>
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Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-9657987385318167732016-04-21T03:20:00.002+08:002016-04-21T03:20:49.602+08:00Guest Post: Food Security and Trade: Can ASEAN Show the WTO a Way Forward?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<i style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">I am very pleased to have my first guest bloggers, my NUS Law colleagues Michael Ewing-Chow and Melanie </span><span style="font-family: Arial; text-align: center;">Vilarasau</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> Slade. They write on ASEAN's food policy, following up on their recent book </span><a href="http://www.e-elgar.com/shop/international-trade-and-food-security" style="font-family: Arial;">International Trade and Food Security: Exploring Collective Food Security in Asia</a>. </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">Michael Ewing Chow (WTO Chair, Faculty of Law at NUS) <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">and <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">Melanie Vilarasau Slade (Centre for International Law)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Food security hit the global headlines in 2008
when world food prices spiked suddenly and plunged over a hundred million
people into chronic hunger, contributing to the ongoing unrest in North Africa
and the Middle East that started with the Arab Spring.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Whilst food prices are no longer front-page news,
food security remains a key concern for governments and policymakers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the ASEAN level, the ASEAN Summit of 2009
pledged “to embrace food security as a permanent and high policy priority”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">It is also high on the agenda of trade
negotiators, where the treatment of national food security policies has threatened
to derail progress in trade negotiations. Indeed, the some have attempted at
recent WTO Ministerials at Bali in 2013 and Nairobi in 2015 to pitch trade
liberalisation against food security, with India in particular arguing that
exemptions from the current trade rules are required to ensure that effective
food security policies can be implemented at the national level.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In our publication ‘<a href="http://www.e-elgar.com/shop/international-trade-and-food-security">International
Trade and Food Security: Exploring Collective Food Security in Asia’</a> we
argue that this narrative is overly simplistic and does not account for the way
in which the current distortions of trade in agriculture actually undermine effective
food security policies rather than support them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">National food security solutions are often
implemented at the expense of both individual food security for citizens within
the country and of the pursuit of collective food security for ‘all people at
all times’ by encouraging the kind of unilateral export restriction responses
that exacerbated the 2008 food price crisis. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In this context it is interesting that ASEAN in
its <a href="http://www.asean.org/storage/images/Community/AEC/AMAF/OtherDocuments/AIFS%20FRAMEWORK%20SPA%20(2015-2020-Endorsed).pdf">Integrated
Food Security (AIFS) Framework and <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Strategic
Plan of Action on Food Security in the ASEAN Region 2015-2020 (SPA-FS)</span></a><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">, </span>is choosing a different way: looking
beyond national solutions and seeking to promote food security through regional
trade, with initiatives such as the <a href="http://cil.nus.edu.sg/rp/pdf/2011%20ASEAN%20Plus%20Three%20Emergency%20Rice%20Reserve%20Agreement-pdf.pdf">ASEAN
Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR)</a> and the <a href="http://cil.nus.edu.sg/2009/2009-asean-trade-in-goods-agreement-adopted-on-26-february-2009-in-cha-am-thailand-by-the-economic-ministers/">ASEAN
Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA)</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">We take a look at these initiatives and, ahead
of ASEAN’s upcoming RCEP negotiations, ask whether there is scope for promoting
ASEAN’s vision more widely.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<b style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">Food
Security Policy in ASEAN – 2008 to 2020</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In 2008, ASEAN countries were rocked by the price
of rice more than tripling in less than a month. Rice exporting countries
implemented or considered implementing export restrictions as a self-sufficiency
strategy. This added to the crisis, causing the price of rice to rise even
further. In the longer term, many traditionally rice-importing countries have attempted
to create self-sufficiency strategies focused on local supply. This does not
mean that a country would do without food exports, but rather that they sought
to reduce their reliance on imports of staple crops such as rice by investing
in national production. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In our publication ‘<a href="http://www.e-elgar.com/shop/international-trade-and-food-security">International
Trade and Food Security: Exploring Collective Food Security in Asia</a>’ we
discuss at length, though contributions by experts in the field, why such
efforts can be counterproductive both to containing pricing volatility and to
ensuring stability of supply. Indeed, it was thinness of trade in rice that
contributed to the pricing volatility that hit ASEAN in 2008. High tariff
barriers and subsidies given to rice producers create a distorted market that
results in inefficient production and distribution of rice. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;">In light of the uncertain impact of climate
change, self-sufficiency as a strategy places all a country’s eggs in one geographical
basket – literally and figuratively – at a time when flexibility of supply is
required. While we cannot be sure what the impact of climate change will be on
the production potential of specific geographical areas, scientists have
suggested that some regions will increase in production potential and current
estimates suggest that the world will be able to provide enough food if production
potential is maximised. This suggests that rather than self-sufficiency as a
strategy, countries need to reconceptualise food security from a collective
security perspective. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">At the ASEAN level, ASEAN Member States have put together
a package of measures</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">to promote ‘Sustainable
Food Trade Development’<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2024204530208039957#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> and
under its ‘Strategic Thrust 2: Promote Conducive Food Market and Trade’ ASEAN
has sought to convene discussions on the </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">procedures and disciplines to be
followed with respect to the use of food rice trade restrictions and operations
of state trading entities; food trade facilitation; food value chain
strengthening, and food diet diversification, hosting an ASEAN Food Trade Forum
last year to progress these discussions.</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">ASEAN already has an example of a
successfully negotiated regional food security initiative, APTERR, in which
ASEAN and its Plus Three trading partners, China, Japan and South Korea have
agreed to limit export restrictions on rice by contributing to virtual
stockpiles, creating an information sharing and market price mechanism for an
origin neutral trade in rice when a member is predicted to be in need of supply
and an emergency response procedure.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">From a rice trade reform perspective
ASEAN is focusing on two twin strategies: (i) guaranteeing stability of supply;
and (ii) promoting market access. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">Designing
an ASEAN Food Security Strategy<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">As highlighted above, encouraging
the efficient production for rice in the region would be one pillar in the
ASEAN food security strategy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">ASEAN is considering encouraging “reduced
self-sufficiency targets of net-rice importing countries in exchange for
guarantees on export deliveries of net rice exporting countries”. This will not be easy. Several ASEAN
countries aim to become entirely self-sufficient in rice. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.riceoutlook.com/malaysia-targets-to-acheive-100-self-sufficiency-level-in-paddy-production-by-2020datuk-seri-ismail-sabri-yaakob/">Malaysia</a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"> has publicly declared
its intention to achieve this by 2020. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.antaranews.com/en/news/98221/indonesia-can-achieve-rice-self-sufficiency-this-year">Indonesia</a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"> has announced it is
ahead of its goal of achieving self-sufficiency by 2018 and </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-rice-imports-idUSKBN0FE0K820140709">The Philippines</a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"> has delayed its target
of 2016, aiming for only 90-95% self sufficiency this year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">The costs of these policies, monetarily
and from a food security perspective, are considerable. We have already covered the dangers of
attempting to see national boundaries as defining the production for food
security: climate change means that production yields are now unpredictable. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">Further, as explained by </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;"><a href="http://irri.org/rice-today/rice-self-sufficiency-a-question-of-geography">Dawe</a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">, “</span><span style="font-family: Arial;">[t]he problem with such a
strategy is that there is a very good reason why fewer farmers grow rice in the
importing countries, namely, other crops are more profitable. Forcing farmers
to grow rice will reduce their income, which will work against household food
security. Thus, rice importers face a trade-off between national
self-sufficiency (which is often equated with national food security) and
household food security. The policy of restricting imports to achieve national
self-sufficiency and reduce reliance on the world market raises domestic
prices, which reduces household food security because most of the poor have to
buy their rice in markets and are hurt by higher prices. Higher domestic prices
also result in other costs, such as reduced farm diversification, poorer
nutrition, and less competitiveness in other sectors of the economy. These
costs should be considered in the design of national policies.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">The only way to persuade countries
that self-sufficiency is not necessary for national food security is to provide
a viable alternative: guaranteed supply through trade. It is no coincidence that these self-sufficiency
drives gained traction following export restrictions by major exporters in
2008. To this end, ASEAN is considering a “set of criteria to be met and
disciplines to be followed in the exercise of export restrictions and/or
related domestic measures which have the equivalent effect of reducing rice
exports”. ASEAN has effectively started moving towards limiting export
restrictions by each member guaranteeing its contribution to APTERR’s virtual
stockpile. More of course can be done but this is an important first step. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Strategies to increase efficient production must be
married to strategies to lower market barriers and thereby improve
opportunities for distribution of rice.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">In return for disciplines on export
restrictions, ASEAN aims to ensure that market access will be provided through
a “set of criteria to be met and other disciplines in the grant of the Article
24 waiver for rice under the ATIGA”. To this, ASEAN adds the “promotion of
private sector participation in rice trade and disciplines to be followed by
national food parastatals [government controlled companies].”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">If implemented as amendments to
Article 24 of ATIGA as proposed in the AIFS SPA-FS, these measures could go a
long way to supporting an effective regional food security strategy.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2024204530208039957#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
The focus on trade as a food security
component will be critical to reducing the thinness of rice trade in ASEAN and
this could in turn result in better production and distribution of rice in
ASEAN, fulfilling national needs through a collective food security strategy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">Planting
the Seeds for a Collective Food Security Strategy</span></b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">Recognising that a regional collective
food security strategy is the best way to ensure food security across ASEAN is
a critical and necessary first step towards its implementation. However, there is still a long way to go before
this is achieved even in ASEAN.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.0pt; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">Building
on APTERR could provide a way forward that would ease the process. </span><span style="font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">In
addition to emergency reserves, as highlighted above APTERR provides: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0in 0in 12pt 42.55pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Disciplines
on agricultural export restrictions including a <i>de facto </i>partial
prohibition of export restrictions up to a certain threshold committed to the
virtual stockpile; <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 12pt 42.55pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Greater
market price transparency; and <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0in 0in 12pt 42.55pt; text-align: left; text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">Regional
cooperation on pricing information. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Significantly, the regional model embodied in APTERR goes
some way to implementing export disciplines by ensuring that at least 1.75
million metric tons<span style="mso-text-raise: 4.0pt; position: relative; top: -4.0pt;"> </span>of rice in the region will not be subject to export restraints,
at least amongst the APTERR members. This will also help reduce rice price
spikes as it limits the opportunity for speculators to take advantage of panic
buying by ensuring that there will be enough rice to meet short-term needs. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Emphasising this aspect of APTERR could assist in
encouraging commitments from both exporting and importing countries under Art.
24 ATIGA.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">But there is another advantage to
APTERR, in that it covers not only ASEAN but also the ‘Plus Three’ countries:
China, Japan and South Korea all of which are major rice producers and rice
consumers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">Looking
Beyond ASEAN: RCEP and the WTO<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">There is an opportunity, through
APTERR, to expand this model of regional food security strategy beyond ASEAN.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">ASEAN’s famous ‘noodle bowl’ of FTAs
is currently being streamlined, with ASEAN member countries collectively
negotiating the ‘Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement’ (RCEP)
with the ASEAN+6 countries, that is, the ASEAN+3 and Australia, India and New
Zealand. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">With APTERR already covering
ASEAN+3, and RCEP envisaged as paving the way towards greater </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.meti.go.jp/press/2012/11/20121120003/20121120003-4.pdf">regional economic
integration</a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">, the kind of commitments envisaged in the reform of Art. 24
ATIGA could be translated to RCEP. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">Currently RCEP does not contemplate
this kind of concessions in agriculture, even though its aim is “</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.meti.go.jp/press/2012/11/20121120003/20121120003-4.pdf">progressively eliminating tariff and non-tariff
barriers on substantially all trade in goods in order to establish a free trade
area” among the RCEP participating countries</a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">”</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">. Instead </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://aseanec.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/american-companies-upbeat-on-se-asia.html">commentators</a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"> have </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.asiantradecentre.org/talkingtrade/2015/2/12/rcep-low-quality-low-ambition-beckons">voiced concern</a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"> that RCEP’s low ambition
could render it irrelevant even to the businesses it is intended to benefit.
While the negotiating agenda has expanded, there is currently little to suggest
that RCEP’s level of ambition will match that of the other regional agreement
to which several ASEAN member countries are party, the </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://aseanec.blogspot.co.uk/2015/10/the-tpps-impact-on-asean.html">Trans Pacific Partnership
(TPP)</a></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">. In it, countries like Japan offered significant concessions on rice –
never before granted in any of Japan’s FTAs - in return for market access in
other areas.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">It may just be that the recent
conclusion of the TPP could spur a higher level of ambition for RCEP. There are powerful drivers that could support
this: those RCEP countries which have already granted concessions under the TPP
may find it difficult to argue that they cannot be granted under RCEP and those
that are not party to it may be keener to seek an effective counterweight that
would avoid the diversion of trade away from their markets that the TPP could
create. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">Regional
agreements could also pave the way for progress at the WTO. Currently at WTO level, despite the attempts
at a Single Undertaking to cover multiple issues, all progress is limited to
individual issue Declarations, which can only attempt to deal with the issues
we raise - the stability of trade and reduction of distortions to agriculture
distribution and production - at a much slower pace.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Indeed, the
use of Decisions, Declarations and Peace Clauses to make progress at the WTO,
outside the clear negotiating framework provided by the Doha <i>single undertaking</i> raises concerns. </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/minist_e/min01_e/mindecl_e.htm"><span lang="EN-US">Para. 47 of the Doha Ministerial Declaration</span></a></span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> allows for
progress via Decisions to be incorporated into the <i>single undertaking</i>. But the future of the Doha round is highly
uncertain, with WTO members failing to ratify their commitment to it at the
recent Ministerial in Nairobi. This
clouds the otherwise significant progress in prohibiting export subsidies
achieved at Nairobi, as sought under </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg2"><span lang="EN-US">Goal
2 ‘Zero Hunger’</span></a></span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> of the </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgs"><span lang="EN-US">Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs)</span></a></span><span style="font-family: Arial;">.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">WTO
is open to incorporating progress that takes place outside its framework through
regional agreements. </span><span style="font-family: Arial;">The Nairobi
Ministerial Declaration at its paragraph 28 states “We reaffirm the need to
ensure that Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) remain complementary to, not a
substitute for, the multilateral trading system. In this regard, we instruct
the Committee on Regional Trade Agreements (CRTA) to discuss the systemic
implications of RTAs for the multilateral trading system and their relationship
with WTO rules.” This is </span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;">placed in Part III of
the Ministerial Declaration which deals with the future of the WTO negotiations
and this language could present an opportunity for the WTO to discuss the
issues raised on Food Security by FTAs such as the TPP and RCEP.</span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">From a
collective food security perspective this would be critical: ultimately the WTO
is the only organisation capable of creating a level playing field in trade in
food. It is the only forum where the US
and China are both present unlike the TPP and RCEP. It is also the only effective rule maker and
arbitrator through the DSU. Ultimately any framework for an effective food
security policy will require this.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">With ASEAN
countries members of the WTO and RCEP and some ASEAN members also in the TPP,
and with the high ambition of the ASEAN food security strategy, ASEAN is in a
key position to show the WTO members a possible way forward.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoFootnoteText" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2024204530208039957#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> See the </span><span lang="EN-GB"><a href="http://www.asean.org/storage/images/Community/AEC/AMAF/OtherDocuments/AIFS%20FRAMEWORK%20SPA%20(2015-2020-Endorsed).pdf">Integrated Food Security (AIFS) Framework and <span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Strategic Plan of Action on Food Security in
the ASEAN Region 2015-2020 (SPA-FS)</span></a></span><span lang="EN-GB">. I</span><span lang="EN-GB">n the first instance the coverage of the AIFS
SPA-FS covers priority commodities for food security in the ASEAN region: rice,
maize, soybean, sugar and cassava. Other commodities such as livestock, fishery
and crops for staple food, which are important for food security and nutrition,
shall be identified during the course of implementation of the AIFS Framework
and SPA-FS<span style="color: red;">.</span></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
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<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=2024204530208039957#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-GB">[2]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></span></a><span lang="EN-GB"> </span><span lang="EN-GB">These
will be combined with (a) measures to attract private investors in a regional
rice futures trading, including the development of a rice index; (b)
establishing product standard and certification procedures in the trade of food</span><span lang="EN-GB"> </span><span lang="EN-GB">commodities; (c) facilitating cross-border trade in
food commodities; (d) strengthening value chain systems and promoting contract
farming; and (e) accelerating food diet diversification among the peoples in
ASEAN. </span></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-6489282777466803282016-04-15T22:48:00.002+08:002016-04-15T22:48:55.794+08:00New Database of AEC Non-Tariff Measures Published<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">This week <a href="http://unctad.org/en/pages/newsdetails.aspx?OriginalVersionID=1234&Sitemap_x0020_Taxonomy=UNCTAD%20Home;">the
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) and UNCTAD launched
a website that compiles data on non-tariff measures (NTMs) in the ASEAN
Economic Community (AEC).</a> NTMs include </span><span style="font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">sanitary and phyto-sanitary
standards (SPS), technical barriers to trade (TBT), import and export
licensing, export restrictions, customs surcharges, anti-dumping and safeguard
measures, and other measures which trade in goods.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The website, which adopts WTO reporting and
classification methodologies, is available <a href="http://asean.i-tip.org/?platform=hootsuite">here</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
website is a much needed addition to the administration and implementation of
the AEC. As I wrote earlier<a href="http://aseanec.blogspot.com/2012/06/dealing-with-non-tariff-barriers-in-aec.html">,
NTMs which actually operate as non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to trade in goods
will frustrate the progress made by eliminating tariffs on intra-ASEAN trade</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Using the ERIA and UNCTAD instead of the
ASEAN Secretariat perhaps is inconsistent with the goal of strengthening the
ASEAN institutions, but it is consistent with ASEAN’s institutional
improvisation and if it enhances trade liberalization in the AEC, then so much
the better.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">However,
there are a few questions which are not resolved by this new initiative.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">First,
the database is limited to “each country's official sources of trade
regulations”. That </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">means that NTMs/NTBs which are not published in the form of
legislation or regulation will not be in the database, which is
unfortunate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many NTMs/NTBs are not published,
and implemented either informally through non-objective application of
procedures by government agencies or through non-published (but written)
directives by ASEAN member states such as private rulings or no-objection
letters. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In short, the database covers <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">de jure</i> measures but not <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">de facto</i> measures, and then only to the
extent that these measures had been self-reported by ASEAN member governments (and
which reporting was not subject to potential sanctions from an ASEAN
institution like the ASEAN Secretariat). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Second,
how will this database be updated?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ERIA
and UNCTAD indicate that they are conducting a qualitative study of how NTMs
affect the regional economy, and that this project will be extended to cover
the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>(RCEP) countries who are not in ASEAN (e.g., Australia-New Zealand,
China, India, Japan and Korea). Both steps will be very useful, but the entire
process should be augmented by imposing a continuing (and binding, with
potential sanctions if possible) obligation on the ASEAN member states to
update the database on a regular basis.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Finally,
the most important question is what will be done with this information.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Chapter 4 of the ASEAN Trade in Goods
Agreement (ATIGA) already commits the ASEAN member states to eliminate NTMs
which actually operate as NTBs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Will the
member states use this database as the basis for discussions/negotiations to
eliminate the NTBs?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Will dispute
resolution be necessary?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Will the ASEAN
member states require prodding from the private sector to do any of this? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
ERIA-UNCTAD database is a good, solid step in the development of the single
production base and single market in ASEAN. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hopefully ASEAN will incorporate and expand
upon this step by broadening its coverage and deepening the understanding and
usage of its underlying data to support the AEC.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-91329701469746334012016-04-07T03:27:00.000+08:002016-04-07T21:48:38.236+08:00How an ASEAN News Agency Can Promote the ASEAN Community<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">This week, <a href="http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/04/05/salleh-proposes-asean-news-agency/">Malaysia’s
communications and multimedia minister Salleh Said Keruak proposed establishing
an ASEAN news agency.</a> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mr. Salleh said that the “the proposed agency
could deliver a comprehensive range of coverage from around the grouping’s 10
member countries,” according to the Malaysia Star, adding that “almost every
Asean member faced crossborder issues relating to security and national
sovereignty and such issues should be reported in a cordial and transparent
manner,” the Star reported.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">T</span><span style="font-family: "arial";">o Western media, the concept of a
unified news agency for ASEAN may seem a bit outdated, given the plethora of
media available in print, broadcast and online.</span><span style="font-family: "arial";">
</span><span style="font-family: "arial";">However, one should remember that most ASEAN member states still
maintain government-supported/sponsored news agencies, with the exceptions of
the small media markets of Singapore and Brunei.</span><span style="font-family: "arial";"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial";">Hence the concept of having an ASEAN news
agency that would provide the same functions as these national news agencies is
still relevant, at least in the ASEAN context.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The real questions would be what topics
the ASEAN news agency would cover, as well as who would work for this agency and how they would pursue their objectives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">First, would the ASEAN news agency
cover the ASEAN institutions only or also cover regional and cross-border
issues in Southeast Asia? If the former, there are existing media sources in
the ASEAN Secretariat and the rotating ASEAN Chair.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An ASEAN news agency could help consolidate
the coverage, as the information coming out of the ASEAN Chair varies on an
annual basis, depending on the capabilities of the member state serving as
ASEAN Chair.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the latter, there are
existing cooperative efforts among the regional media groups as well as
regional entities such as Channel News Asia and CNBC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An
ASEAN news agency could enhance these cooperative and regional efforts.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Second, how would ASEAN topics be
covered?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Currently, media coverage of
ASEAN or regional issues is either event-driven (e.g., the ASEAN Summits) or
incident-driven (e.g., a natural disaster).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Continuing coverage of ASEAN regional issues could be fostered by an ASEAN
news agency devoted to such issues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Third, who would work for an ASEAN news
agency?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Should the agency be more of a
cooperative effort among national media groups, or should it be more like the
government-supported/sponsored news agencies?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This is a fundamental question that would need to be resolved by ASEAN
itself. Either way, I would hope that the ASEAN news agency would have
sufficient numbers of capable staffers fluent in all of the ASEAN languages, as
much of the media coverage of ASEAN in non-English language media is relatively
sparse.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Finally, the ASEAN news agency should
not limit itself just to traditional media, but also focus on social
media.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Otherwise, it will lose its
relevancy to younger audiences.</span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial";"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">In short, an ASEAN news agency could be
a useful tool in promoting the ASEAN Community to ASEAN’s people and to the
greater world.</span><span style="font-family: "arial";"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial";">However, both the
practical and existential aspects of the ASEAN news agency need to be
addressed, in context to its regional environment in ASEAN.</span></div>
</div>
Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-80573214874362832362016-03-18T08:45:00.000+08:002016-03-18T18:50:50.963+08:00Brexit's Direct and Indirect Impacts on ASEAN<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">This week I was asked by a
client about the potential effect on ASEAN of t<a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/02/graphics-britain-s-referendum-eu-membership">he United Kingdom’s (UK) referendum on whether the country should stay in the European Union (EU),</a> e.g,.
what would happen if “Brexit” were to become reality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I had a twofold reaction: first on the
practical effects on British companies operating in ASEAN and second on how
ASEAN would handle a member which wished even to consider pursuing a course
similar to what the UK is contemplating.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">First, if the UK were to
leave the EU, it would have to renegotiate how it would deal with the EU.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some anti-EU proponents contend that a newly
departed UK could negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU, whether
as part of the European Free Trade Association, or separately, as Switzerland has
done.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, the EU would not be
likely to be generous or sympathetic to a UK that had just left.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Just as important in the
ASEAN context, however, is the fact that the EU is a party to recently
concluded FTAs with Singapore and Vietnam, and is negotiating FTAs with
Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines and even considering an overall FTA
with ASEAN.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Such FTAs provide for
preferential tariffs for EU goods and investment protections for EU investments,
benefits which a newly departed UK would not enjoy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Furthermore, the UK's bilateral investment treaties (BITs) will no longer provide investment protections, <a href="http://cil.nus.edu.sg/wp/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/What-Gives-with-Indonesia-AmCham-6May2014.pdf">as ASEAN members such as Indonesia are withdrawing from these BITs</a>. </span>A non-EU UK thus would have to attempt FTA
negotiations on its own with these ASEAN members; the terms of the EU FTAs with
Singapore and Vietnam require these ASEAN members to enter into FTA negotiations with those
countries that have customs unions with the EU, but whether (1) the UK could
conclude such a customs agreement with the EU and (2) the UK could reach
agreement on FTAs with the ASEAN members is not certain at all.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In such an eventuality,
Scotland, which had only just voted to stay in the UK, would be motivated to
leave the UK and join the EU.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If Scotland
were to join the EU, Scottish exports would qualify for tariff privileges under
the EU FTAs with Singapore, Vietnam and other ASEAN members and Scottish
investment would be protected by these EU FTAs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Thus, although the EU FTAs
with ASEAN members are probably not primary considerations for British voters,
increasing the likelihood for Scotland to leave the UK and join the EU after a
Brexit should be a major consideration. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial";">Second, if an ASEAN member
were to consider leaving the regional grouping, could it?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span>Unlike the EU treaty, ASEAN’s foundational document,
the ASEAN Charter, does not provide for the departure of a member (or the
expulsion of a member, for that matter).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Also unlike the EU, ASEAN’s economic agreements do allow for a
couple of halfway measures for any ASEAN member inclined to retreat from its
commitments under the ASEAN Economic Community.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA), for example, contains a
reciprocity clause that provides that an ASEAN member can enjoy tariff
privileges only to the extent that it provides them to other ASEAN
members.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hence an ASEAN member could
elect to withdraw from its ATIGA commitments, on condition that the other ASEAN
members would do the same. Similarly, the “ASEAN-X” formula in the ASEAN
Charter, which allows a sub-grouping of ASEAN members to progress faster with
economic integration, could be interpreted to allow a sub-grouping of ASEAN
members to go slower or withdraw from economic integration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Either way, the wayward ASEAN member(s) would
still remain part of ASEAN.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "arial";">Hopefully we never have to
see such an eventuality, as the regional dynamics of ASEAN differ greatly from
that of the EU.</span><span style="font-family: "arial";"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial";">At least the availability
of these halfway stations would allow the wayward member to bring itself back
into the ASEAN fold, something that is not readily conceivable for a UK that
votes to leave the EU.</span><span style="font-family: "arial";"> </span></span></div>
</div>
Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-83435459092867534042016-02-20T06:29:00.000+08:002016-02-22T23:18:34.064+08:00Strengthening All Aspects of the ASEAN Institutions<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: normal;">The Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) has
published a fascinating paper on the ASEAN Secretariat entitled “</span><span style="font-weight: normal;"><a href="http://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/pdf/ISEAS_Perspective_2016_8.pdf">A Strong
Secretariat, a Strong ASEAN? A Re-evaluation”</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Incorporating oral history and written
reflections, this paper provides a socio-political analysis of the ASEAN
Secretariat, positing that the ASEAN Secretariat actually had robust authority
and influence during the pre-Charter era, only to have it eroded by a lack of
resources and support to decline into its current state.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><br /><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-weight: normal;">The paper
asserts that the heyday of the ASEAN Secretariat began in 1992 when the
Secretary General of the ASEAN Secretariat became the Secretary General of
ASEAN.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With that change in status came higher
salaries and increased resources, which attracted talent from within the
region.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just as importantly, the paper puts
forth that the ASEAN Secretariat assumed a greater role over ASEAN matters
through a combination of geniality and indirect influence, particularly when a
weaker ASEAN member served as the ASEAN Chair (imagine an ASEAN-version of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/yesminister/">Sir Humphrey Appleby from “Yes,
Minister”</a>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">However, according to the
paper, the failure of the ASEAN Secretariat to keep up with market salary
levels, an influx of less experienced officers from the newer, less developed
ASEAN members, and personnel policies that discouraged staff retention all
eroded the overall capability of the ASEAN Secretariat, as well as the ties
between the ASEAN Secretariat’s staff and the ASEAN member states, resulting in
a decline in its influence on ASEAN.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The paper opines that the formalization of the
authority of the ASEAN Secretariat and the ASEAN Secretary General coincided
with, but did not cause, a decline in influence.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Yet, according to the paper, the culture of
geniality remained, albeit with lessened indirect influence.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Thus, the paper concludes
that the ASEAN Secretariat actually had strength and authority in the
past.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hence calls to strengthen the
ASEAN Secretariat should be considered with this in mind, e.g., that a
strengthened ASEAN Secretariat is actually a return to a norm rather than an
unprecedented situation. Furthermore, without improving the operating culture
of ASEAN, increasing the formal authority of the ASEAN institutions alone will
not strengthen ASEAN.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I think this paper is a
welcome addition to the very small collection of scholarly material focused on
the ASEAN institutions themselves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, I would make some additional points.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">First, the purported heyday
of the ASEAN Secretariat in the 1990s and 2000s was a time where ASEAN was
smaller and less formal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was the
case, in particular, for political-security matters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since that time, ASEAN and its commitments
have grown significantly, particularly in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Under such circumstances, the ASEAN
Secretariat would necessarily have to take on more formal roles (and has done
so), as the depth and breadth of the AEC has developed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hence in its AEC role, at least, the ASEAN Secretariat
cannot operate as it did 20-25 years ago (although a stronger ASEAN Secretariat
probably could do so in political-security matters).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Second, the resources,
capability and culture of any international bureaucracy are always
inter-related.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, there were institutional deficiencies
in the early days of the EU, as salary and status did not keep up with those of national
governments or the private sector.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
EU also has had to incorporate less experienced officers from newer member
states.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet as the EU strengthened its
institutions with funding and resources, they were able to attract better
officials, creating a virtuous cycle whereby better officials strengthen the
institutions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the ASEAN leaders were
to make the same commitment to a more professionalized ASEAN Secretariat with
better funding and support, the Secretariat will attract qualified staff from all
across ASEAN and create its own virtuous cycle.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">In sum, the paper does shine
a useful light on the unwritten history of the ASEAN Secretariat, showing that
the interactions of a regional organization such as ASEAN do not only depend on
formal rules, but also on the people involved: it is a living entity. I hope
that ASEAN’s leaders keep this in mind as they examine the challenges facing
ASEAN, and the need to strengthen the ASEAN institutions.</span></div>
</div>
Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-59260739025944437742016-02-18T23:58:00.000+08:002016-02-20T00:05:27.256+08:00Building on the U.S.-ASEAN Sunnylands Summit<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">This week I am in Washington.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From inside the Beltway, one could make the
assessment that this week’s U.S.-ASEAN summit at Sunnylands was just another
instance of America’s indifference to Southeast Asia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For most media coverage, the summit was just
a backdrop for another front on the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign
and/or the U.S. Supreme Court vacancy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
former is a consequence of the timing of the summit (the last year of the Obama
administration) and the latter is a consequence of fate (the death of Justice
Scalia).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">Some who did pay attention
to the summit have criticized it for being symbolic only and without
significance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a bit unfair.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">The Sunnylands summit was
always intended to be a proof of concept, evidence that the U.S. is committed
to Southeast Asia. This was evident from the location (the same locale as the
Obama-Xi meeting) to the timing (Presidents’ Day). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";"><br />
Moreover, to ASEAN, symbolism is important.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Over the years, I have had countless conversations with ASEAN diplomats
and observers who complained about the absence of the U.S. President (or in
some cases the U.S. Secretary of State) from ASEAN meetings due to various
domestic considerations (elections, natural disasters, shootings). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also recall that <a href="http://aseanec.blogspot.com/2015/11/upgrading-us-asean-relationship.html">the
previously proposed U.S.-ASEAN summit in Crawford was never held</a>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thus, being able to conduct the Sunnylands
event with relatively minimal effects from U.S. domestic and foreign policy
events should therefore not be discounted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial";">The presence and
participation of almost every ASEAN national leader is also important.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Concerns about having a military government
in Thalland did not prevent the Thai prime minister from coming. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Leaders from Laos and Vietnam came after
leadership transition decisions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
only leader who did not come, Myanmar president Thein Sein, justifiably stayed
home to deal with his country’s own political transition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">The output of Sunnylands
thus should be considered in this context.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The joint declaration did not single out China’s behavior on the South
China Sea/West Philippine Sea controversy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However, doing so would not have been realistic nor in keeping with
previous ASEAN declarations on the subject, and <a href="http://www.todayonline.com/world/asia/asean-and-us-push-rules-based-regional-order">the
declaration does refer to resolving the dispute through international law and
principles</a>, which implicitly supports the Philippine position on the
dispute.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Also, the U.S. announced it
would set up hubs in Bangkok, Jakarta and Singapore to support business
investment in the region.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To a large
extent, this is a repackaging of existing U.S. government programs, but again,
the optics of this initiative are important, particularly the involvement in
Bangkok (a sign of continuing presence regardless of any domestic issues) and
Jakarta (a needed indication of support against Indonesian revanchism on trade
and investment).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The U.S. will also
conduct workshops on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), which are needed to
counter the misconceptions and distortions surrounding the TPP (<a href="http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/cambodias-hun-sen-slams-asean-splitting-tpp/">even
among ASEAN leaders</a>).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Hence the Sunnylands summit
demonstrates the value of engaging with the Southeast Asian countries through
ASEAN, something that should be done at other levels of government as
well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In other words, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>both the process of having had the summit and
its output, strengthen the U.S.-ASEAN relationship.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">The real question is whether these U.S. commitments and initiatives will
survive the change of government in January 2017.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From past experience, I would think so.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For example, the U.S.-Singapore Free Trade
Agreement was first floated in the last days of the Bill Clinton
administration, and the U.S. entered the TPP talks in the last days of the
George W. Bush administration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Regardless of what happens in the November 2016 elections, I think the
Obama administration initiatives with ASEAN will also be continued by his
successor. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-24976519863416286812016-02-12T12:44:00.000+08:002016-02-20T10:46:20.857+08:00Timor-Leste Progressing With ASEAN Accession<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I've been tardy in posting to the blog recently, due to work commitments. I am on the Asian Development Bank (ADB) team advising Timor-Leste on its ASEAN accession. This week we briefed Nobel Peace Prize laureate and former Timor-Leste president Jose Ramos-Horta on the status of the accession:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0tv9UHZVynKHWXdc7q07xobU0F6edzFX3cK_pCcV2YyZivybMvzWZFJZFv-LQlSlJC9mAg0D9veVH4KiBmo4_8xeUPUEDl23q-0p2rz-yVUQd0bNTSAyy_Yem6D50-2H1s-ehyGdjIHeH/s1600/IMG_1170.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0tv9UHZVynKHWXdc7q07xobU0F6edzFX3cK_pCcV2YyZivybMvzWZFJZFv-LQlSlJC9mAg0D9veVH4KiBmo4_8xeUPUEDl23q-0p2rz-yVUQd0bNTSAyy_Yem6D50-2H1s-ehyGdjIHeH/s400/IMG_1170.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">All I can say at this point is that Timor-Leste has made great strides towards membership. For more, please see this <a href="http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/open-the-asean-door-to-timor-leste">Straits Times article by Shane Rosenthal</a>, the ADB's country director for Timor-Leste (on the left side of the above photo).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I'll have more soon. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div id="stcpDiv" style="left: -1988px; position: absolute; top: -1999px;">
he
impending launch of the ASEAN Economic Community is being marked this
week at a summit in Kuala Lumpur. It should also be the time for ASEAN
to consider opening the door to a new member. Timor Leste is Asia’s
youngest country — a stable democracy at the crossroads of Southeast
Asia and the Pacific. Acceptance as a member country would enhance its
prospects for economic development, while further strengthening the
organization’s centrality and relevance.<br />
<br />
Timor Leste has made
remarkable progress since gaining independence in 2002. Its
infrastructure was in disrepair, social services absent, and government
institutions at their inception. Despite brief periods of instability,
the country now has a well-functioning government and is using its
modest petroleum wealth to foster long-term economic growth. <br />
<br />
Gaining
membership has been a priority for Timor Leste throughout its short
history. Successive governments have made the case through diplomatic
efforts such as signing onto the ASEAN Regional Forum in 2005, and the
Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia two years later. By
next year Timor Leste will have embassies in the capitals of every ASEAN
member country.<br />
<br />
These are impressive achievements for a young
country, but not surprising to development partners that are helping
rebuild its infrastructure and develop the skills needed for the economy
to continue expanding. <br />
<br />
Newly paved roads now connect Timorese
with their Indonesian neighbors, and electricity reaches almost every
corner of the country. Deregulation has transformed mobile
telecommunications to such a degree that companies from two member
countries — Vietnam and Indonesia — are now competing for a growing and
increasingly connected customer base. <br />
<br />
While many of Timor
Leste’s nearly 1.2 million people remain poor, huge strides have been
made to improve living conditions and increase life opportunities.
Infant mortality has halved since independence, and the incidence of
malaria has fallen by 95 percent. Primary school enrollment rose from 65
percent in 2001 to 92 percent in 2013, and the proportion of
parliamentary seats held by women stands at 38 percent, the highest in
Asia.<br />
<br />
The ASEAN Charter sets out four criteria for membership,
three of which are met by Timor Leste: It is located in Southeast Asia,
is recognized by the 10 ASEAN nations, and would agree to be bound and
abide by the organization’s charter. <br />
<br />
The fourth requirement,
demonstrating an “ability and willingness to carry out the obligations
of membership”, is for ASEAN’s members to judge. Concerns have been
raised about its readiness to participate in the organization’s
economic, political-security, and socio-cultural communities, given the
hundreds of meetings it holds each year.<br />
<br />
Timor Leste’s track
record on governance suggests it would be a worthy member. The country
has held three open elections without incident, and participates
actively in international organizations such as the G7+ group of
post-conflict states and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries.
Timor Leste represents a model for managing natural resources wealth,
ranking near the top of the international Resources Governance Index,
ahead of several ASEAN members. <br />
<br />
ASEAN members appear open to
Timor Leste’s application. The country’s ambassador to the Jakarta-based
Secretariat was accredited in 2011, the same year the ASEAN
Coordinating Council established a working group that commissioned
studies on what it would mean for Timor Leste to join. <br />
<br />
Membership
is a win-win proposition. It would help Timor Leste to attract
investment, develop trade links, and diversify its economy. It already
has one of the most open trade policies in the region, but joining such a
high-profile organization would send a powerful signal to investors and
help to accelerate integration with the rest of Southeast Asia. <br />
<br />
ASEAN,
too, would benefit from the young population and strategic location of
Timor Leste. The inspirational story of Timor Leste and its impressive
development would be a shining example for all member states. It would
give added meaning to the grouping’s members as they journey toward its
Vision 2025, which calls for a “politically cohesive, economically
integrated, socially responsible” ASEAN.<br />
<br />
Timor Leste has emerged
as an able and willing member of the community of nations. The time has
come for this country to take the next step on its road to prosperity. -
See more at:
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/11/21/timor-leste-belongs-asean.html#sthash.B4EcUsFt.dpuf</div>
<div id="stcpDiv" style="left: -1988px; position: absolute; top: -1999px;">
he
impending launch of the ASEAN Economic Community is being marked this
week at a summit in Kuala Lumpur. It should also be the time for ASEAN
to consider opening the door to a new member. Timor Leste is Asia’s
youngest country — a stable democracy at the crossroads of Southeast
Asia and the Pacific. Acceptance as a member country would enhance its
prospects for economic development, while further strengthening the
organization’s centrality and relevance.<br />
<br />
Timor Leste has made
remarkable progress since gaining independence in 2002. Its
infrastructure was in disrepair, social services absent, and government
institutions at their inception. Despite brief periods of instability,
the country now has a well-functioning government and is using its
modest petroleum wealth to foster long-term economic growth. <br />
<br />
Gaining
membership has been a priority for Timor Leste throughout its short
history. Successive governments have made the case through diplomatic
efforts such as signing onto the ASEAN Regional Forum in 2005, and the
Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia two years later. By
next year Timor Leste will have embassies in the capitals of every ASEAN
member country.<br />
<br />
These are impressive achievements for a young
country, but not surprising to development partners that are helping
rebuild its infrastructure and develop the skills needed for the economy
to continue expanding. <br />
<br />
Newly paved roads now connect Timorese
with their Indonesian neighbors, and electricity reaches almost every
corner of the country. Deregulation has transformed mobile
telecommunications to such a degree that companies from two member
countries — Vietnam and Indonesia — are now competing for a growing and
increasingly connected customer base. <br />
<br />
While many of Timor
Leste’s nearly 1.2 million people remain poor, huge strides have been
made to improve living conditions and increase life opportunities.
Infant mortality has halved since independence, and the incidence of
malaria has fallen by 95 percent. Primary school enrollment rose from 65
percent in 2001 to 92 percent in 2013, and the proportion of
parliamentary seats held by women stands at 38 percent, the highest in
Asia.<br />
<br />
The ASEAN Charter sets out four criteria for membership,
three of which are met by Timor Leste: It is located in Southeast Asia,
is recognized by the 10 ASEAN nations, and would agree to be bound and
abide by the organization’s charter. <br />
<br />
The fourth requirement,
demonstrating an “ability and willingness to carry out the obligations
of membership”, is for ASEAN’s members to judge. Concerns have been
raised about its readiness to participate in the organization’s
economic, political-security, and socio-cultural communities, given the
hundreds of meetings it holds each year.<br />
<br />
Timor Leste’s track
record on governance suggests it would be a worthy member. The country
has held three open elections without incident, and participates
actively in international organizations such as the G7+ group of
post-conflict states and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries.
Timor Leste represents a model for managing natural resources wealth,
ranking near the top of the international Resources Governance Index,
ahead of several ASEAN members. <br />
<br />
ASEAN members appear open to
Timor Leste’s application. The country’s ambassador to the Jakarta-based
Secretariat was accredited in 2011, the same year the ASEAN
Coordinating Council established a working group that commissioned
studies on what it would mean for Timor Leste to join. <br />
<br />
Membership
is a win-win proposition. It would help Timor Leste to attract
investment, develop trade links, and diversify its economy. It already
has one of the most open trade policies in the region, but joining such a
high-profile organization would send a powerful signal to investors and
help to accelerate integration with the rest of Southeast Asia. <br />
<br />
ASEAN,
too, would benefit from the young population and strategic location of
Timor Leste. The inspirational story of Timor Leste and its impressive
development would be a shining example for all member states. It would
give added meaning to the grouping’s members as they journey toward its
Vision 2025, which calls for a “politically cohesive, economically
integrated, socially responsible” ASEAN.<br />
<br />
Timor Leste has emerged
as an able and willing member of the community of nations. The time has
come for this country to take the next step on its road to prosperity. -
See more at:
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/11/21/timor-leste-belongs-asean.html#sthash.B4EcUsFt.dpuf</div>
<div id="stcpDiv" style="left: -1988px; position: absolute; top: -1999px;">
he
impending launch of the ASEAN Economic Community is being marked this
week at a summit in Kuala Lumpur. It should also be the time for ASEAN
to consider opening the door to a new member. Timor Leste is Asia’s
youngest country — a stable democracy at the crossroads of Southeast
Asia and the Pacific. Acceptance as a member country would enhance its
prospects for economic development, while further strengthening the
organization’s centrality and relevance.<br />
<br />
Timor Leste has made
remarkable progress since gaining independence in 2002. Its
infrastructure was in disrepair, social services absent, and government
institutions at their inception. Despite brief periods of instability,
the country now has a well-functioning government and is using its
modest petroleum wealth to foster long-term economic growth. <br />
<br />
Gaining
membership has been a priority for Timor Leste throughout its short
history. Successive governments have made the case through diplomatic
efforts such as signing onto the ASEAN Regional Forum in 2005, and the
Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia two years later. By
next year Timor Leste will have embassies in the capitals of every ASEAN
member country.<br />
<br />
These are impressive achievements for a young
country, but not surprising to development partners that are helping
rebuild its infrastructure and develop the skills needed for the economy
to continue expanding. <br />
<br />
Newly paved roads now connect Timorese
with their Indonesian neighbors, and electricity reaches almost every
corner of the country. Deregulation has transformed mobile
telecommunications to such a degree that companies from two member
countries — Vietnam and Indonesia — are now competing for a growing and
increasingly connected customer base. <br />
<br />
While many of Timor
Leste’s nearly 1.2 million people remain poor, huge strides have been
made to improve living conditions and increase life opportunities.
Infant mortality has halved since independence, and the incidence of
malaria has fallen by 95 percent. Primary school enrollment rose from 65
percent in 2001 to 92 percent in 2013, and the proportion of
parliamentary seats held by women stands at 38 percent, the highest in
Asia.<br />
<br />
The ASEAN Charter sets out four criteria for membership,
three of which are met by Timor Leste: It is located in Southeast Asia,
is recognized by the 10 ASEAN nations, and would agree to be bound and
abide by the organization’s charter. <br />
<br />
The fourth requirement,
demonstrating an “ability and willingness to carry out the obligations
of membership”, is for ASEAN’s members to judge. Concerns have been
raised about its readiness to participate in the organization’s
economic, political-security, and socio-cultural communities, given the
hundreds of meetings it holds each year.<br />
<br />
Timor Leste’s track
record on governance suggests it would be a worthy member. The country
has held three open elections without incident, and participates
actively in international organizations such as the G7+ group of
post-conflict states and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries.
Timor Leste represents a model for managing natural resources wealth,
ranking near the top of the international Resources Governance Index,
ahead of several ASEAN members. <br />
<br />
ASEAN members appear open to
Timor Leste’s application. The country’s ambassador to the Jakarta-based
Secretariat was accredited in 2011, the same year the ASEAN
Coordinating Council established a working group that commissioned
studies on what it would mean for Timor Leste to join. <br />
<br />
Membership
is a win-win proposition. It would help Timor Leste to attract
investment, develop trade links, and diversify its economy. It already
has one of the most open trade policies in the region, but joining such a
high-profile organization would send a powerful signal to investors and
help to accelerate integration with the rest of Southeast Asia. <br />
<br />
ASEAN,
too, would benefit from the young population and strategic location of
Timor Leste. The inspirational story of Timor Leste and its impressive
development would be a shining example for all member states. It would
give added meaning to the grouping’s members as they journey toward its
Vision 2025, which calls for a “politically cohesive, economically
integrated, socially responsible” ASEAN.<br />
<br />
Timor Leste has emerged
as an able and willing member of the community of nations. The time has
come for this country to take the next step on its road to prosperity. -
See more at:
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/11/21/timor-leste-belongs-asean.html#sthash.B4EcUsFt.dpuf</div>
</div>
Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-90606488660638864552015-12-31T06:10:00.001+08:002015-12-31T06:24:37.918+08:00December 31, 2015: Time to Celebrate, Then Get Back to Work, ASEAN<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">At the stroke of midnight
tonight, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) comes into being.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There will be no fireworks or concerts
tonight devoted to the AEC, unlike the formation of the single market in the EU
in 1992 (and definitely not a song like the Kinks’ <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCurhUsuPKA">Down All the Days (to 1992)</a>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Aside
from a few ASEANcrats in Jakarta and elsewhere in Southeast Asia, probably not
many people will directly celebrate tonight’s milestone.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Tonight does not mark the
end of economic integration in Southeast Asia, nor even the beginning of the
end.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rather, December 31, 2015,
represents the end of the beginning of economic integration in ASEAN, a long,
often times slow, process.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Intra-ASEAN duties have been
eliminated on virtually all goods through the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement
(ATIGA), and investment rules have been established through the ASEAN
Comprehensive Investment Agreement (ACIA).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This represents significant progress since the early days of ASEAN
economic efforts in the 1970s. In some ways, <a href="http://aseanec.blogspot.com/2012/09/asean-economic-community-in-2015-in-way.html">we already have had an AEC</a> for several years, and tonight only represents its formal recognition.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Granted, implementation of
ATIGA, ACIA and other ASEAN agreements has been inconsistent.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Liberalization of trade in services through
the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS) will not be completed by the
2015 timeframe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://aseanec.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-asean-secretariatreleased-two.html">By any measure, many AEC measures have not been completed as well.</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Coupled with other perceived deficiencies in regional cooperation in
Southeast Asia (haze, migration, South China Sea/West Philippine Sea, etc.), it
is easy to discount ASEAN as an organization.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Yet focusing solely on the
negative in ASEAN overlooks the positive achievements of the organization.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The fact remains that ASEAN is the most
successful regional organization in the developing world. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No two members of ASEAN have engaged in
outright hostilities, despite the long history of conflict in the region: even
during the Preah Vihear dispute, ASEAN helped with its resolution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ASEAN has helped Myanmar return to the global
scene.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ASEAN helped with the birth of
Timor-Leste (and possibly is part of its future as well).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Finally, ASEAN has provided economic
deliverables from ATIGA, ACIA and (albeit incompletely) AFAS, as well as the
ASEAN FTAs with Australia-New Zealand, China, India, Japan and Korea. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">ASEAN has therefore achieved
much, but as the deficiencies indicate, it could achieve so much more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is where the ASEAN institutions and/or
the ASEAN processes need strengthening and improvement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Without some relaxation of national
sovereignty concerns that will allow for such augmentation of the ASEAN
institutions and/or processes, ASEAN will find it increasingly difficult to
deal with regional issues of economic integration (whose further progress will
require dealing with issues within national economies, not just at the national
borders), security, the environment, health and other issues.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Thus, ASEAN, born in the 20<sup>th</sup>
Century, needs to update itself for the 21<sup>st</sup> Century; the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">status quo</i> is insufficient to deal with
today’s issues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is not to say that
ASEAN must follow the EU model of strong regional institutions or the NAFTA
model of robust processes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A grouping of
relatively young nations with varying legal and political systems will
necessarily have to find its own direction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>That process will appear slow and inconsistent, particularly to Western
observers, but it will and must take place. Otherwise, ASEAN risks becoming as
irrelevant as its predecessors became.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Tonight ASEAN should
celebrate both its achievements and its potential.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It and the generations of leaders in the
ASEAN governments and institutions who worked on its formation and operations
deserve this.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Then the next morning, it
will be time to get back to work, for there is much to be done.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2024204530208039957.post-73862571706996448332015-12-09T09:42:00.004+08:002015-12-09T23:19:07.791+08:00With AEC in Sight, an Old ASEAN Project Lingers On<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: "arial";"><a href="http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Chaiyaphum-residents-complain-to-Asean-embassies-30274540.html">The
Nation today reported on a controversial power plant being built to power a
potash mine in Thailand. </a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What’s
interesting about the dispute is that it involves an ASEAN project that dates
back to the earliest days of ASEAN economic cooperation, just as the ASEAN
Economic Community (AEC) is about to be launched formally later this month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">The AEC is just the latest
iteration of economic cooperation in Southeast Asia, a process that dates back
to the <a href="http://www.asean.org/news/item/the-asean-declaration-bangkok-declaration">1967
Bangkok Declaration</a>. However, the scope and vision of economic integration
has changed over the years. Originally economic cooperation was driven more by
the ASEAN governments, rather than the private sector. As such, the priorities
of ASEAN governments focused more on collaboration on economic matters to
promote social and political stability, rather than economic competitiveness. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is reflected in the 1976 <a href="http://www.icnl.org/research/library/files/Transnational/1976Declaration.pdf">Bali
Concord I</a> declaration, which called for ASEAN members to provide mutual
support in food and energy. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">This vision was implemented
in the <a href="http://www.asean.org/communities/asean-economic-community/item/basic-agreement-on-asean-industrial-projects-kuala-lumpur-6-march-1980">ASEAN
Industrial Project (AIP) scheme of 1980</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Under the AIP, each ASEAN member would sponsor an industrial project.
The host government and its private sector would take 60% shareholding, with
the other member governments taking up the remaining 40%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The output of each project would receive
trade preferences for exports to other ASEAN countries under <a href="http://cil.nus.edu.sg/1977/1977-agreement-on-asean-preferential-trading-arrangements-signed-on-24-february-1977-in-manila-the-philippines-by-the-foreign-ministers/">the
ASEAN Preferential Trading Arrangements agreement (APTA</a>), and would have
exclusivity within ASEAN.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Given these priorities, it
was no surprise that the AIP projects focused on agriculture, e.g., food
security: Indonesia (urea), Malaysia (urea) and the Philippines (phosphates).
Thailand started in soda ash, then changed its project to potash, which is used
in the production of fertilizer. Singapore proposed a diesel engine project,
which was somewhat related to agriculture since the engines could be used to power
agricultural equipment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Unfortunately, the APTA and
AIP schemes were not successful. APTA failed because it only provided for
relative reductions in import duties, rather than absolute reductions (a 50%
reduction of a 100% import duty leaves a significant duty in place) and because
it only covered a limited number of products (the most infamous being snow
removal equipment, useless in a tropical region).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">The AIP scheme was
relatively more successful, with Indonesia and Malaysia successfully
constructing their urea projects. The Philippine project became caught up in
the post-Marcos era political and economic transition, with phosphates being
replaced by fertilizer, then pulp and paper, then copper fabrication, then
eventually becoming defunct.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Singapore project was hampered by the
reluctance of other ASEAN members to grant exclusivity to the diesel engines
(Malaysia, in particular).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Singapore
then shifted its project to a Hepatitis-B vaccine production plant, which can
in retrospect be seen as inconsistent with the objective of the AIP scheme.
More importantly, Singapore deliberately limited its investments in the other
ASEAN members’ AIP projects to 1% shareholding to express its discontent with
the program.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With other ASEAN members
following suit on the basis of reciprocity, the AIP projects began to have
funding shortfalls.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Which brings us to the Thai
potash project, now called ASEAN Potash Mining Public Company Limited.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After much planning and effort, the company
now plans to start mining potash next year, 36 years after the AIP projects
were first envisioned.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The local community,
however, objects to the construction of a coal power plant to power the mine,
suggesting solar or natural gas. The mine’s management says that only its own
coal-fired plant can make the mine economically viable.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The local community has resorted to protesting
at the embassies of Brunei (which joined the AIP scheme when it became an ASEAN
member in 1984), Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore, because they
still have equity in the potash project.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial";">Without making any
assessments on the Thai company’s dispute with the local community, the AIPs in
Thailand and elsewhere demonstrate the pitfalls when economic cooperation and
integration is driven by government priorities, not market concerns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A normal business would not take 36 years to
come into fruition. Moreover, direct government ownership can bring unwanted
criticism, as the Thai dispute illustrates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: arial;">Fortunately, ASEAN economic
integration has long since moved away from statist efforts and is based more on
market-driven efforts by the private sector.</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="font-family: arial;">The continuing struggle of the Thai AIP to bring itself into being is
another blast from the past demonstrating that ASEAN governments should
support, but not lead, economic integration in Southeast Asia through the AEC.</span></div>
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Edmund Simhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05587491653422878925noreply@blogger.com