In today’s
post, I provide a wrap-up on last week’s ASEAN Summit. Given the focus of this blog, I will not
analyze issues (such as the South China Sea) which have been well covered
elsewhere. Instead, I review some institutional developments:
New ASEAN Secretary-General – Lim
Jock Hoi of Brunei was named the next ASEAN Secretary-General. Lim will
serve during the 2018-2022 term (this post is rotated among the ASEAN countries
based on alphabetical order, so the next Secretary General will be from
Cambodia). This is a positive development for the AEC, as
Lim has deep experience in trade and investment issues, having served as Brunei’s
chief negotiator during the Trans Pacific Partnership talks. By my reckoning, Lim has the most experience in
regional economic integration of any Secretary General.
ASEAN-Hong Kong FTA (AHKFTA) – ASEAN and Hong Kong signed their
FTA. With ratification not expected to
be an issue, the AHKFTA will take effect before the completion of the Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) talks (which have again missed a
self-imposed deadline for completion). The
real value-added for the AHKFTA is in investment and services, as virtually all
goods coming out of Hong Kong have China-origin and thus already qualify for the
ASEAN-China FTA. Rather, the AHKFTA will
give Hong Kong companies better access and protection for investments and
services, meaning that Chinese companies can use Hong Kong for their investment
vehicles rather than an ASEAN country or China itself. This may mean some small market share loss in
investments for Singapore, particularly in the Philippines and perhaps northern
Vietnam (due to distance and stronger links) but overall both ASEAN and Hong
Kong will benefit from the FTA.
Timor-Leste – The Minister of Foreign Affairs and
Cooperation Aurelio Guterres was in Manila representing Timor-Leste instead of
the Timorese president. However, this
was not a downgrading by ASEAN but instead resulted from internal protocol
issues in Timor-Leste (and Guterres, whom I know from the Diplomatic Institute
and the National University of Timor-Leste, represented the country well). The
ASEAN Summit did not issue any finding on Timor-Leste’s application to join
ASEAN, referring the matter to the working group that meets on December 5 in
Bali. Hopefully the Bali meeting will be the end of the beginning for the Timorese
accession to ASEAN.
I will update
this post as more documentation comes out.
