I was in Washington, DC, this week. The main ASEAN-related issue discussed around
town is whether Myanmar will have successful by-elections on April 1, and if
so, to what extent the U.S. Burma sanctions will be lifted. Most observers expect Aung San Suu Kyi to get
into the Myanmar parliament, but what she does after that remains a mystery. If
she immediately calls for a complete end to the Burma sanctions, we can expect
the U.S. Congress to respond in kind. However, most observers expect her to
call for some moderated lifting of sanctions in order to maintain some leverage
with the Myanmar regime. The religious
and ethnic issues, which some conservative U.S. politicians had cited in their
support of Burma sanctions, appears to be of lesser priority these days.
In any event, I expect the U.S. to also take
its cue from what the EU does. The EU is
scheduled in April to issue its annual review and renewal of its own
sanctions. If the April by-elections are
even reasonably successful, we can expect the EU to relax its own, looser
sanctions later in the month. U.S.
officials are aware that U.S. business will be losing out on opportunities in
Myanmar and will at least offer some greater administrative clarity on what
they can and cannot do. Nevertheless, the eventual lifting of U.S. Burma
sanctions will take months to accomplish even on an expedited schedule.
Here’s some other ASEAN Economic Community news
from this week:
- ASEAN members agreed to establish an ASEAN Energy Regulators’ Network (AERN). The AERN will coordinate energy trade within the regional bloc.
- ASEAN + 3 members proposed to double the size of the Chiang Mai Initiative foreign currency fund.
- The ASEAN Coordinating Council set up a working group to review Timor Leste’s application for ASEAN membership.
- The Stock Exchange of Thailand proposed an exemption from capital gains tax for transactions made on the ASEAN Link of cross-border securities trade in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam. The exemption is intended to boost interest in the ASEAN Link. Also, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand signed a memorandum of understanding to expedite secondary listings on each others' exchanges.
- Japan accredited a new resident ambassador to ASEAN.
