This week I attended the
annual Washington Doorknock of the Asia-Pacific Council of American
Chambers of Commerce (APCAC). This is an opportunity for American Chambers
of Commerce in Asia to hear from the Obama administration and the US Congress
about their thoughts and opinions on Asia.
There were a few items that impact the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC):
First,
State and Treasury department officials indicated that the official suspension
of US Burma sanctions against the Myanmar regime will take place soon, and no
later than Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to the ASEAN Regional Forum in Cambodia on July
12-13. The
suspension had been announced in May during a visit by the Myanmar foreign
minister to Washington, but the formal suspension, in the form of a “general
license” to do business with Myanmar, has not yet been issued by the Treasury
department, which administers the Burma sanctions.
The suspension will likely cover all of the issues discussed
in
my previous blog entry, with the additional likelihood that companies
investing in Myanmar will have to file a periodic report on corporate social
responsibility efforts. The suspension
will not likely result in a lifting of the ban on imports from Myanmar, as the
U.S. Congress will likely pass an extension of the ban and other sanctions for
an additional year (although President Obama’s ability to waive the sanctions
will also continue). The suspension
comes as the US-ASEAN Business Council
and the American Chamber of Commerce plans two separate business missions to
Yangon and Naypyidaw in July and August (I am going in the August mission).
Second,
thoughts on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) were mixed. Most thought it would not be practical for
the TPP to be completed this year although progress had been noted. Some (mostly Republicans) thought that
without Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), a statutory delegation of authority by
the Congress to the President along with expedited consideration and voting
procedures for Congress, a TPP result would be difficult to achieve. Along with the long-stalled WTO Doha Roud,
the TPP is the first major trade agreement the US has attempted to negotiate
without TPA (or its predecessor Fast-Track) since the 1970’s, and trading
partners will be reluctant to negotiate and conclude deals if they know that
Congress will later rewrite the agreement during the consideration
process. In addition, TPA traditionally
comes with formal notice and consultation processes to be followed by the
Administration, which USTR has been following without statutory authority for
TPP anyway. Nevertheless, there were
some complaints that without the TPA stipulations, USTR’s consultation process
with Congress has been less satisfactory than its outreach efforts to other
stakeholders such as non-governmental organizations.
There was concern about how TPP could be linked up with US
efforts to engage ASEAN more. Major
ASEAN members such as Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines are not in the
TPP talks, and may not be ready to join for the foreseeable future due to their
domestic political concerns. One State
official opined that perhaps a “half-way house” for these ASEAN members could
be created so that ASEAN could have some linkages with the TPP; other officials
thought that economic development in these ASEAN members would be better served
by their joining the TPP talks in full, noting that Thailand had
had its opportunity for a bilateral FTA with the US in the last decade and
would already be in the TPP talks now if it had entered into an FTA.
Third,
this was an opportunity to meet several US officials who have had a major
impact on ASEAN, including Senator Daniel K. Inouye, the US Senate president
pro tem, whom I have long admired as an Asia-Pacific American political pioneer:
During the meeting, he remembered his last visit to Yangon
in 1966, making him one of the first US legislators to visit Myanmar/Burma. Another notable legislator is Rep. Xavier
Becerra, who had been offered the USTR position by President Obama. USTR Ron Kirk has done an excellent job, but
seeing Rep. Becerra in action during a panel makes me wonder what could have
been achieved with him at USTR.
