The coming year presents
great challenges and opportunities for ASEAN.
In some ways, the external environment for ASEAN has stabilized, with
most of ASEAN’s major trading partners having undergone leadership transition
periods or elections (e.g., China, Japan, Korea and the United States). Australia and India will have elections in
the near future, but in neither case should a change in government have major
effects on the region.
We can look forward to a
drama-free year coming from Brunei as ASEAN Chair. This may be bad for headline writers, but it
will be good for the ASEAN institutions.
Brunei has a small, well-run and professional bureaucratic corps
supported by the Sultan’s resources and long experience in the region. The ASEAN Deputy-Secretary General for the
AEC, Dr. Lim Hong Hin, is also from Brunei and will be able to work closely
with the ASEAN Chair during what promises to be a critical year in the run-up
to 2015.
An immediate example of
Brunei’s experienced and steady hand was its decision not to
hold the informal ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting next month. This eliminates the potential for publicly
rehashing the disputes that arose from the July 2012 ASEAN foreign ministers’
meeting and the November 2012 ASEAN Summit in Cambodia. The Senior Officials Meeting will still be
held, but in private, giving ASEAN leaders sufficient time to prepare for the
formal meetings and ASEAN Summits to be held later in the year.
A drama-free year would be
good for the ASEAN institutions as well.
Le Luong Minh will start his term as ASEAN Secretary General and will
benefit from having Brunei as ASEAN Chair.
If Brunei could also pursue the administrative reforms advocated by Dr.
Surin Pitsuwan for the ASEAN institutions that would be even better. In particular, Brunei should revive its
proposed surcharge on air travel that would generate funds for the ASEAN
institutions. This would both provide
much-needed funds for the ASEAN institutions as well as promote greater
awareness of ASEAN.
There will be challenges to
ASEAN, of course. The International Court of Justice will issue another ruling
in the Preah Vihear case. Cambodia and
Thailand currently have good relations, but would Cambodia react badly to an
adverse ruling, particularly since it is no longer ASEAN Chair? How would Thailand react to an adverse ruling? The South China Sea dispute continues to
rumble on, with no sign of immediate resolution in sight. The ongoing global economic crisis threatens
ASEAN prosperity. The EU-Singapore FTA
and ASEAN-India FTA services and investment agreements need finalization of the
text, and the EU-Malaysia FTA talks need to reach completion soon before
Malaysian goods get subjected to higher EU duty rates in 2014. ASEAN and its trading partners will start the
RCEP talks. Indonesia and Malaysia both
hurtle into election seasons, while Myanmar rushes to make its reforms
irreversible before its own elections in 2015.
Economic development, the environment, improving human resources, and
other issues may also come into play next year.
The next year will require
even “more ASEAN” than ever before. This
will strain ASEAN’s resources and institutions. Fortunately, the new leadership
coming in, both at the ASEAN Chair and ASEAN Secretary General, look to be
capable. Hopefully fortune will be kind
and give us the drama-free year that ASEAN needs.
