This week ASEAN
foreign ministers concluded an informal retreat in Thailand with a joint call
for a unified ASEAN position on a code of conduct for the South China Sea. The consensus contrasts with last year’s formal
ASEAN foreign ministers meeting in Cambodia which failed to issue a joint
declaration because of Cambodia’s (then ASEAN Chair) opposition.
Now, perhaps one can
attribute Cambodia’s relative change of heart due to Hun Sen’s narrow
parliamentary election victory (and thus his need for his ASEAN neighbors to
give the results legitimacy) or simply that Cambodia’s commitment to China had
lasted only for its term as ASEAN Chair (which I think is more likely). Either way, the affirmation of ASEAN
consensus on this issue is a positive development for the regional grouping.
Indeed, the resurrection of
ASEAN consensus on the South China Sea is most likely the result of China’s own
policy initiatives in the region. Chinese
verbal and maritime activity in the region, including creating a municipal
Chinese government for the island in the South China Sea, reduce ASEAN’s
confidence that China wants a peaceful, cooperative solution to the territorial
disputes. The recent Chinese leadership
transition (e.g., the need to emphasize nationalistic tones) may have
instigated these moves, but in any event, China has been responsible for most
of the provocative moves in the region.
As a result, the other major
power in Asia, the United States, has not had to do much to improve its
diplomatic position in southeast Asia.
America’s “pivot” or refocusing on Asia has been aided to a great extent
by China, making it relatively easy for America to maintain its leadership role
in the region.
The problem will be what the
United States will do if and when China changes tack and follows a charm
offensive with ASEAN. There are some signs that with President Xi Jinping and
his team consolidating their power in China, China will dial back its approach
to southeast Asia. If that happens,
America will need to offer ASEAN members more than simply being the default
global power in the region. The Obama
Administration has taken some measures to do this by asking the U.S. Congress
for Trade Promotion Authority so that the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) FTA talks
can be concluded and implemented. This
will reassure those ASEAN members who are in the TPP talks, e.g., Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam.
The greater difficulty will
be how to help those ASEAN members who are not in the TPP talks, e.g.,
Indonesia and the Philippines. As I noted in the WSJ.com, the
frustrating thing is that Indonesia and the Philippines are the most supportive
of a U.S. role in the region yet they are the most unprepared of the major
ASEAN countries to join the TPP.
Squaring the circle will require both countries (and Thailand as well)
to face their internal opposition and join the TPP talks. The example of Japan is helpful; if Japan can
face down its internal opposition, why not these countries? America will have to help those countries do
so.
Thus, the United States in
southeast Asia has a situation similar to that of Apple in the electronics
market. Both offer products and
solutions which are currently popular, but continued success will require
continued innovation.
