Today in Naypyidaw Myanmar
concluded its second and last ASEAN Summit as ASEAN Chair. With that, the
figurative gavel associated with the ASEAN Chair was handed to the 2015 ASEAN
Chair, Malaysia. Although Malaysia does
not formally take over as ASEAN Chair until the end of the year, in reality
Malaysia has been acting in an ASEAN leadership role this year, and likely
beyond next year, particularly with regard to the ASEAN Economic Community
(AEC). This is all for the better for
the AEC.
As discussed previously, the
major accomplishment of Myanmar as ASEAN Chair is that it was allowed to serve
as ASEAN Chair, and that the ASEAN Summits and various associated meetings
took place this year without difficulty.
The position of ASEAN Chair served as a carrot for Myanmar to undertake
its economic and political reforms, and the ASEAN Summits allowed the Myanmar
government to display its willingness to continue those reforms. The real question for Myanmar is how next
year’s elections will play out, e.g., whether a new Myanmar government will be
established that can fully implement these reforms.
However, to use an old
American aphorism, Myanmar is not (yet) able to “walk and chew gum at the same
time.” Although it should be
complimented being able to “walk” (e.g., serve as ASEAN Chair), years of
economic isolation left Myanmar ill-prepared to take on the AEC-related tasks,
particularly in the run-up to the AEC’s December 31, 2015, implementation
date.
Fortunately ASEAN’s
leadership had foreseen this possibility and allowed Laos and Malaysia to swap
their terms as ASEAN Chair. Malaysia, as
a founding member of ASEAN and an active trading nation, is much more experienced
and capable of handling the AEC issues.
Furthermore, in the Razak brothers, Malaysia’s public and private
sectors have leadership devoted to ASEAN and the AEC. Prime Minister Najib Razak wants to establish
a diplomatic and political legacy, while Nazir Razak wants to create a fully
functioning AEC in which his CIMB Bank thrives.
Thus, we have seen Malaysia
pushing for reforms of the ASEAN institutions as leader of the High Level Task
Force on institutional reform, with Prime
Minister Najib Razak openly calling for changes to ASEAN’s organizational and
financial structures. Meanwhile, Nazir
Razak has been calling for similar changes to support the AEC as both a single
market and a single production base.
Indeed, because of the
rotation of the ASEAN Chair, Malaysia could continue to have a continuing role
beyond 2015. Laos, despite being an
enthusiastic supporter of the AEC, has limited resources and capabilities;
hence its own role in AEC development in 2016 could and should be augmented by
Malaysia serving as an unofficial holdover role (and when the Philippines, the
2017 ASEAN Chair, may be preoccupied with its own elections to take on early
responsibilities).
The coming year therefore
promises to see Malaysia continuing its work, only with the added formal
position as ASEAN Chair. It is vital for
the AEC’s success that Malaysia fully follow through and deliver actual institutional
reforms. December 31, 2015, is only the
end of the first stage of the AEC, and such reforms are necessary to deliver on
the AEC’s full promise.
