At the stroke of midnight
tonight, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) comes into being. There will be no fireworks or concerts
tonight devoted to the AEC, unlike the formation of the single market in the EU
in 1992 (and definitely not a song like the Kinks’ Down All the Days (to 1992)). Aside
from a few ASEANcrats in Jakarta and elsewhere in Southeast Asia, probably not
many people will directly celebrate tonight’s milestone.
Tonight does not mark the
end of economic integration in Southeast Asia, nor even the beginning of the
end. Rather, December 31, 2015,
represents the end of the beginning of economic integration in ASEAN, a long,
often times slow, process.
Intra-ASEAN duties have been
eliminated on virtually all goods through the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement
(ATIGA), and investment rules have been established through the ASEAN
Comprehensive Investment Agreement (ACIA).
This represents significant progress since the early days of ASEAN
economic efforts in the 1970s. In some ways, we already have had an AEC for several years, and tonight only represents its formal recognition.
Granted, implementation of
ATIGA, ACIA and other ASEAN agreements has been inconsistent. Liberalization of trade in services through
the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS) will not be completed by the
2015 timeframe. By any measure, many AEC measures have not been completed as well.
Coupled with other perceived deficiencies in regional cooperation in
Southeast Asia (haze, migration, South China Sea/West Philippine Sea, etc.), it
is easy to discount ASEAN as an organization.
Yet focusing solely on the
negative in ASEAN overlooks the positive achievements of the organization. The fact remains that ASEAN is the most
successful regional organization in the developing world. No two members of ASEAN have engaged in
outright hostilities, despite the long history of conflict in the region: even
during the Preah Vihear dispute, ASEAN helped with its resolution. ASEAN has helped Myanmar return to the global
scene. ASEAN helped with the birth of
Timor-Leste (and possibly is part of its future as well). Finally, ASEAN has provided economic
deliverables from ATIGA, ACIA and (albeit incompletely) AFAS, as well as the
ASEAN FTAs with Australia-New Zealand, China, India, Japan and Korea.
ASEAN has therefore achieved
much, but as the deficiencies indicate, it could achieve so much more. That is where the ASEAN institutions and/or
the ASEAN processes need strengthening and improvement. Without some relaxation of national
sovereignty concerns that will allow for such augmentation of the ASEAN
institutions and/or processes, ASEAN will find it increasingly difficult to
deal with regional issues of economic integration (whose further progress will
require dealing with issues within national economies, not just at the national
borders), security, the environment, health and other issues.
Thus, ASEAN, born in the 20th
Century, needs to update itself for the 21st Century; the status quo is insufficient to deal with
today’s issues. That is not to say that
ASEAN must follow the EU model of strong regional institutions or the NAFTA
model of robust processes. A grouping of
relatively young nations with varying legal and political systems will
necessarily have to find its own direction.
That process will appear slow and inconsistent, particularly to Western
observers, but it will and must take place. Otherwise, ASEAN risks becoming as
irrelevant as its predecessors became.
Tonight ASEAN should
celebrate both its achievements and its potential. It and the generations of leaders in the
ASEAN governments and institutions who worked on its formation and operations
deserve this. Then the next morning, it
will be time to get back to work, for there is much to be done.
